FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The economic, social and political risks facing Russia after the end of the war in Ukraine
Contrary to what it pretends, Russia is not interested in ending the war in Ukraine. This is due to social and economic threats. Earlier, we said that the failure of negotiations in Washington between the US and Ukraine could have happened because the Russians were not ready to sign a peace agreement.
We are convinced that the Kremlin leadership, which in its composition and mode of operation has become increasingly similar to the Politburo of the Soviet Union in its last years, fears that the end of the war with Ukraine could lead to consequences similar to those after the end of the war in Afghanistan in 1989.
The return of Soviet veterans from the Afghan War (1979-1989) had significant social consequences in the Soviet Union, and later in post-Soviet states:
1. Increased crime: Finding it difficult to reintegrate into civilian life, many war veterans became involved in criminal activities. Their combat experience made them valuable recruits for the organized crime groups that emerged in the 1990s. Thus, they contributed to an increase in violence and crime in post-Soviet societies.
2. Social alienation: Afghan war veterans (known as “Afghans”) often felt neglected and misunderstood by society and the government. They faced difficulties finding work, and lacked sufficient support for their mental health issues, leading to widespread problems of isolation and mental health crises.
3. Homeless and Poor: Economic hardship and inadequate support from the state led to the impoverishment of many veterans. Some became homeless, while others struggled with drug and alcohol abuse.
4. Mental health crisis: Many veterans began to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a condition that was not widely recognized or treated in the Soviet Union at the time. This led to high rates of depression, suicide, and substance abuse.
5. Political activism: The widespread discontent among veterans helped fuel political movements. Many of them became vocal critics of the government, participating in protests and supporting nationalist and opposition groups, contributing to the social and political instability of the 1990s.
6. Impact on the family: The psychological burden of war also affected the families of veterans, leading to domestic violence, separation, and trauma that continues for several generations.
The legacy of the Afghan war created a generation of disillusioned and neglected veterans. It is a scenario the Kremlin fears could be repeated with veterans of the war in Ukraine. Since 2023, Russia has seen a sharp increase in violent crime among individuals who returned after participating in combat operations in Ukraine.
A similar increase in crime was observed in the 1990s after soldiers returned from Afghanistan. These individuals formed the backbone of criminal groups in the post-Soviet space, committing violent crimes due to their combat experience. Russian authorities involved a large number of prisoners in the war in Ukraine.
We believe that after demobilization, these individuals are likely to continue their criminal activities. Their involvement in numerous war crimes in Ukraine suggests that their brutal behavior may continue. While the end of the war may slightly reduce state orders for the defense sector, this reduction will affect employment as well as the demobilization of some military units.
And this will increase the pressure on the labor market. Also, we believe that the end of the war will lead to the disclosure of data on the losses of Russian personnel, creating negative political pressure on the country's leadership. This will lead to no small public dissatisfaction among veterans of this war regarding the actions of the military and political leadership in terms of supply and management. So Russia may not want a peace agreement for several reasons:
1. Strategic interests: Russia aims to maintain its influence in Ukraine and the region. A peace agreement that strengthens Ukrainian sovereignty could undermine Moscow's geopolitical goals.
2. Economic Incentives: The Russian military-industrial complex benefits greatly financially from the ongoing conflict through budget and corruption schemes. Peace threatens these revenue streams.
3. Political leverage: The conflict in Ukraine allows Russia to exert pressure on the West and test NATO's resolve. Maintaining the unstable situation in its neighbor could serve Moscow's broader foreign policy objectives.
4. Domestic politics: The Kremlin can use the war to strengthen nationalist sentiments in the country, distract attention from domestic problems, and maintain control over the population.
5. Avoidance of accountability: A peace agreement could lead to international investigations into alleged war crimes and human rights abuses, increasing the risk of criminal liability for Russian leaders.
6. Economic sanctions: Russia may not want to engage in a peace process
which requires concessions, and which could result in prolonged or increased sanctions, damaging its economy.
7. Social unrest and popular discontent: Veterans returning to their homes
8. With unresolved grievances, such as inadequate pay, poor conditions, and mistreatment by commanders, they may become politically active and critical of the government. Protests and riots may emerge, instigated by veterans and their families, similar to the social movements that followed the Afghan war.
9. Increased pressure on social services: The Russian state may find it difficult to meet the social and medical needs of returning soldiers, especially if the economy is struggling from sanctions and the costs of war. Veterans and their families could put additional pressure on already strained social welfare systems.
10. Potential for paramilitary movements: Disillusioned veterans may be recruited into nationalist or extremist groups, contributing to internal instability and acts of violence. Former soldiers may also be used by political factions or private military companies, while maintaining their militarized lifestyle./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by the Robert Lansing Institute
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