FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
For the second time in as many years, the Kremlin is deliberately fomenting a refugee crisis.
In late 2021, Moscow helped reinforce threats by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to "flood" Europe with migrants, targeting Poland and the Baltic states.
Already in recent weeks, Russian authorities have forcibly pushed hundreds of migrants and refugees towards Finland's eastern border. Due to this situation, the Finnish government recently closed its entire border with Russia, while Estonia has threatened to do the same.
Meanwhile, the European Union's border agency, Frontex, has pledged to deploy its personnel to Finland's border with Russia. As might be expected, Russia has reacted by denying that it is playing any dirty game with migrants, but few people in EU and NATO countries are convinced by its claims.
The truth is that Moscow's actions are related to Finland's NATO membership a few months ago and its new defense pact it signed with the United States, which began to be negotiated at the beginning of this month. In response, some media have interpreted this latest episode in Russia's hybrid war as an act of revenge: threaten Russia's security periphery and face chaos on your borders.
But while closely related to its security calculations, Russia's motivations go much deeper than that. Nearly 2 years after the start of full-scale war in Ukraine, these actions play a key role in supporting Vladimir Putin's domestic propaganda narratives, which are largely based on fear.
By foregrounding NATO's threat to the Russian way of life, he can justify the gradual reorientation of its society and economy toward semi-permanent war. At the strategic level, this move is also part of a broader vision of Russia's geopolitical future and its conception of competing hegemonies in Northern and Eastern Europe.
Before last year, Finland had been neutral towards Russia for decades. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the calculations, and by the end of 2022, support for NATO membership among Finns had risen to nearly 80 percent. Despite never being part of the Soviet Union, Finland has been immune to Russian aggression.
It was under Russian occupation for more than a century until 1917, and repulsed a Soviet invasion during World War II. Finland's reorientation has therefore been predictably used by the Kremlin as an opportunity to play the victim, presenting the current situation on the Finnish-Russian border as an attack on the Russians rather than a crisis of their own making.
"They should continue to feed these kinds of narratives, for themselves and for the population in Russia," says Pentti Forsström, a researcher at the National Defense University of Finland and a retired lieutenant colonel in the Finnish Defense Forces. "Now they are using our every action, such as closing the border, to argue that we are the ones to blame," he emphasizes.
In response to the closure of the borders, the governor of Russia's Murmansk region, which borders Finland, has announced "a heightened state of readiness... to ensure the safety of our residents," while Russians living in Finland have staged protests, accused the Finnish government of severing family ties with the other side of the border.
This kind of rhetoric fits perfectly with Putin's claims about a Russophobic West that threatens the "Russian world" and also threatens its neighboring communities abroad. Although the West once took them less seriously, such claims are now part of a larger narrative to justify Russian expansionism.
Protecting ethnic Russians was a major part of Moscow's official justification for invading Ukraine in 2022, as well as Georgia in 2008. Not only that, but a crisis like the one along the Finnish border provides the Kremlin with "proof" of new to convince ordinary Russians about NATO's aggressive presence on the country's borders.
And this propaganda fodder is needed today more than ever. Russia is quietly moving its economy and defense industry into a long-term war posture, and is facing a resurgence of political drive from its own people as it tries to recruit more troops for its war in Ukraine.
It is essential that ordinary Russians continue to see the conflict as an existential threat to their way of life, worth sacrificing both livelihoods and human lives. Finland's growing military cooperation with the US, and recent pledges of support from Poland - a regular focus of Kremlin propaganda - make Finland a perfect place to implement this strategy.
Për këtë arsye, figurat kryesore në mediat ruse kanë lënë tashmë të kuptohet se ky është vetëm fillimi i luftës hibride të Rusisë kundër Finlandës. Përmes një videoklipi, prezantuesi televiziv Tigran Keosayan (i cili është i martuar me drejtuesen famëkeqe të medias propagandistike të Kremlinit Russia Today, Margarita Simonyan) dukshëm shpalosi logjikën e kësaj fushate retorike.
“Të dashur finlandezë. Në fillim, ju na ndaluat hyrjen me makinë, dhe tani me biçikletë”- tha ai në puntatën e fundit të programit të tij, një referencë për biçikletat që autoritetet ruse pretenduan se u kishin dhënë emigrantëve gjatë rrugës për në kufirin finlandez . “Ju nuk na lini asnjë zgjidhje tjetër”- përfundoi ai, ndërsa në ekran u shfaq karikatura e një tanku.
Megjithatë, në strategjinë e Rusisë që shpesh i shpëton ciklit tonë të ethshëm të lajmeve, ka edhe një element tjetër. Pozicioni i Finlandës në verilindje të Detit Baltik dhe afërsia e saj me gadishullin e rëndësishëm strategjik Kola, që i përket Rusisë, e kanë bërë atë të ketë një rëndësi jetike për ambiciet detare të Rusisë për më shumë se një shekull.
Për Rusinë, qasja në portet me ujë të ngrohtë është një objektiv i përhershëm dhe thelbësor për projektimin e fuqisë globale. Një Finlandë neutrale, nënkuptonte që Shën Petersburgu - të cilin Pjetri i Madh e ndërtoi fillimisht si një portë hyrëse dhe kulturore e vendit për Perëndimin - mund t’i siguronte Rusisë një korridor të sigurt detar për një prani detare në Balltik.
Por kjo gjë ka ndryshuar që nga zhvendosja e aleancave në lidhje me Ukrainën. Në kushte kur Finlanda i bashkohet Estonisë në gjirin e aleancës së NATO-s, kjo e fundit mund të bllokojë të gjithë Gjirin e Finlandës, duke reduktuar qasjen detare të Rusisë në enklavën e saj ushtarakisht të rëndësishme (por mikroskopike) të Kaliningradit.
Për vite me radhë, Rusia ka hedhur bazat për të përfituar nga ngrohja e temperaturave në Detin Arktik, të cilat përveç hapjes së rrjeteve të reja tregtare dhe rezervave të naftës dhe gazit, paraqesin mundësinë për të anashkaluar këtë bllokadë hipotetike të NATO-s përmes vijës bregdetare të saj veriore.
Dhe ky synim është ngushtësisht i lidhur me sigurinë e portit pa akull të Murmanskut në Gadishullin Kola, ku ndodhet e dislokuar një forcë të rëndësishme parandaluese bërthamore ruse shumë pranë kufirit verilindor të Finlandës.
Megjithatë bazuar tek kjo logjikë ogurzezë, interesat gjeopolitike të Rusisë në rajon nxiten nga e njëjta shtysë strategjike si pushtimi dhe aneksimi i Krimesë nga Rusia në vitin 2014 si dhe nga nxitja e saj për ta shkëputur Ukrainën nga Deti i Zi në vitin 2022.
So from the desire to control the essential waterways, which enable Russia to escape from geographical isolation on the Eurasian terrain. With these considerations in mind, the Russian military confirmed earlier this year that it would split its western military district in two, and create a new site of military activity along the borders of Finland, re-establishing the Military District of Leningrad that had been inactive since 2010.
Long before this month's escalation, we had proof that the growing hybrid war being played out on Finland's border is just the beginning of a broader Russian campaign against the country. For Putin, this is the culmination of his 2 main desires: to strengthen his nationalist narrative at home; and re-invest in a neglected area of competition between the great powers.
However, for Finland all this means only one thing: the period of calm relations between NATO and Russia has come to an end, which is being replaced by a new world of great anxiety from threats and instability.
Note: Michal Kranz, freelance journalist reporting on politics and society in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and the United States./ "Unherd"
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