FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
So far there is silence on the fate of Hamas and its weapons...
As President Trump prepares to depart for Cairo and Jerusalem, the first phase of the deal is well underway. Israeli forces have withdrawn as planned, and Palestinians are returning to any remaining land. Large amounts of humanitarian aid will enter Gaza. These are all unilateral actions.
The exchange of hostages and prisoners is scheduled to begin on Sunday or Monday. Hamas and Israel are exchanging lists. This step is more complicated, as it requires careful coordination and a certain degree of mutual trust. However, the commitment from both sides appears strong.
So far there has been silence on the fate of Hamas and its weapons. This suggests that the Israelis are prepared to let the remaining militants survive. Rumors circulate of an amnesty if they renounce violence. Hamas has long decided to relinquish its governing responsibilities. It has not surrendered, so it will disappear.
The deployment of a peacekeeping force will begin the next phase. The Egyptians, Qatar, and Turkey are preparing to deploy. Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates are also possible. They will need to get there quickly to prevent retaliation, property theft, and other crimes. Stabilization and reconstruction in the past have often seen a “golden hour” after a peace agreement. In this case, I think it will be more like a golden ten minutes. The Muslim forces will not only need to deploy quickly. They will also need to maintain good relations with both the Israelis and the Palestinians. This will not be easy, especially if things come up that spoil the situation.
Smuggling of people, goods and drugs is typical of post-war situations. The sooner peacekeepers take control of Gaza's borders and coastline, the better. Malfeasance by peacekeepers could also be a big problem. I think the Egyptians are not being paid as well as the Qataris. That could create problems.
Setting up the civil administration will be an even bigger challenge. There are plenty of experienced people. The necessary Palestinian technocrats are plentiful around the world. It is not clear whether they will leave their jobs to take on a dangerous mission. Israel will try to block Palestinians and internationals who once worked for the United Nations. And it will not be happy if the new administration simply adopts the health and education systems that Hamas had created.
Where is the vision?
Trump has abandoned his Mar-al-Gaza vision of a Palestinian-free resort. But he has not replaced it with anything. Will Americans imagine that Gaza can remain a virtual open-air prison? Or will they get Prime Minister Netanyahu to accept the proposal of a Palestinian state? Will Netanyahu be able to stay in power? If not, what will his successor project as a political solution to Israel’s long war with the Palestinians?
This moment is an opportunity, to be sure. But it won’t last unless there is a vision of how Israeli Jews and Palestinians will coexist in the future. The Israelis are the winners for now. With authority comes responsibility. They must make politics work at least as well as they did with the military./ Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “Peacfare”
Nje sherr mbyllet e hapet nje tjeter e pastaj shkojme te sherri i pare e keshto kjo bote rrotullohet deri sa te shuhet.