FLASH
Shkruar nga Ivana Stradner
Russia celebrated Victory Day a few weeks ago, a major national holiday commemorating the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany. Speaking in front of the Russian troops at the occasion parade in Red Square, Vladimir Putin promised that Russia will very soon achieve victory again, this time over Ukraine.
But if something like this happens, not only the existence of Ukraine as a state, the security of Europe but also beyond would be endangered. Because his next conquests are already about to be announced. The Kremlin has been very sincere in its desire to weaken NATO, disrupt the internal unity of the West, and subjugate Russia's neighbors.
For Putin, the war in Ukraine is not just about that country. He sees the current conflict as a defining moment in his wider war against the West, and in reforming the current world order. Putin said that Russia has no plans to attack any NATO country.
Because of this, many Western leaders are comfortable in the belief that Russia's war is strictly limited to Ukraine because NATO's Article 5 is "watertight". But if Moscow is allowed to prevail in Ukraine, other countries - including NATO members - will be at much greater risk. Conversely, Western support for Ukraine shows Putin that he will pay an "even greater" price if he attacks any of the alliance's countries, and is preparing for any such scenario.
This fact has not escaped the countries closest to Russia. Especially the Baltic countries, have warned that Russia can "shift the attention very quickly" from Ukraine to occupy their territory. Even Moldova, which hopes to break free from Russian influence and join the West, fears that its future could be its own if Putin emerges victorious in Ukraine.
What is most important: Russia does not need to send tanks and planes to such countries. A victorious, emboldened Russia, well entrenched in Ukraine and with spare military capacity, can rely on hybrid means of warfare, using "short men in green uniforms" both on the ground and in the information space to persuade it. The West that the conflict is internal.
Consequently, in the case of the Baltic, Article 5 of NATO cannot be activated. This is what German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius meant when he warned that Russia could attack a NATO member state within "5-8 years". In fact, Russia is already working to destabilize Europe.
Last month, NATO warned that Russia is waging an "escalating campaign" of cyber attacks and other "hybrid" operations against its members. The British secret service has warned that Moscow is even planning "physical attacks" on the West.
We know that Russia is recruiting far-right extremists to carry out attacks on individuals. And European intelligence agencies say that in order to weaken us, Moscow has organized violent acts of sabotage across Europe, and is planning many more.
The Russians are trying to interfere in this month's European Parliament elections, and undoubtedly in the US presidential election in November. Meanwhile, Russia is using its hybrid war machine to foment chaos in NATO's soft sub-belt: the Western Balkans.
Using information operations and corrupt influence, Moscow aims to fuel ethnic tensions between Serbia and Kosovo and within Bosnia and Herzegovina. As Georgia faces massive protests, fueled by a recently passed law aimed at cracking down on civil society and its aspirations to join the EU, Russia is offering Tbilisi security assistance.
As parliamentary elections are held in Moldova this year, and Chisinau is expected to vote on EU membership, Russia is unlikely to miss an opportunity to sow further discord in the country in western Ukraine. A Moscow victory over Kiev would have serious consequences in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
Because if Russia is able to resist the West in Ukraine, then Beijing may conclude that it will face weak resistance to military aggression against Taiwan. In addition, Moscow aims to strengthen its military presence in Africa, for which it works with the help of the remnants of the Wagner mercenary group.
Russia and China believe that the decline of US global power is essential to them, and they are lobbying for a multipolar international system that is no longer led by Washington. The West can only win this war if its leaders understand Putin's game. Since Putin first came to power, he has waged an offensive aimed at promoting "reflexive control" of the West. "Reflexive control" is an old Soviet concept, and foreign to most Western countries.
It involves interfering in another country's decision-making until its government is forced to take action in the Kremlin's interests. According to the strategy of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, Russia's war game works through "mass psychological manipulation of the population, to destabilize the state and society".
This is what Moscow did with some success in Ukraine, before its Maidan Revolution in 2014, when people reacted. Ukrainian President Zelensky says that "we can and should only think about how to win". Sadly, this sentiment is not shared by many people in the West.
And it leaves unclear what victory means, promising that we will stand by Ukraine "as long as it takes." For Putin, this is a dream come true, and it gives him the ability for a long war. Have no illusions: the West has the power to ensure Russia's defeat.
Together, the Western countries leave Russia far behind economically, and surpass it militarily. But they must translate this potential into reality. And that requires patience and determination to stand by Ukraine, and to provide it with the weapons and training necessary for its forces to win on the battlefield. Otherwise, Ukraine will be the first domino to fall./ Adapted Pamphlet from "Daily Telegraph"
Note: Ivana Stradner, a researcher at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
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