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As a powerful state in East Africa, Kenya's recognition of Kosovo has sparked widespread reactions in Kosovo and Serbia. Leaders from both countries have expressed both hopes and concerns about the potential impact, which expert Gëzim Visoka calls a "turning point."
Since Kosovo's declaration of independence, many countries have recognized its statehood. But many others, such as on the African continent, still refuse to do so, due to concerns about separatist movements within their own countries.
At the first meeting held by the African Union (AU) this month, Morocco - which holds the presidency of this institution for the month of March - called for the protection of "territorial integrity" as a way to maintain stability on the continent.
Recognition by Kenya could bring about a change in this policy, prompting other African countries to make the same decision.
Gëzim Visoka, author of the book "The Recognition of States", says that if institutions engage, this could be a "turning point in favor of Kosovo".
"Recognition by Kenya represents a good opportunity for the Government of Kosovo, but also for other engaged actors, to regain momentum and work in a sustainable and strategic manner to conclude the process of international recognition of Kosovo," Visoka tells Radio Free Europe.
Visoka, professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Dublin in Ireland, says that, in the future, Kosovo should aim for 10 to 12 recognitions within a year.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said that the recognition by Kenya could spur a trend of recognitions of Kosovo.
He said he would personally speak with East African leaders to prevent the “spread of the trend [of recognizing Kosovo].”
He also warned that in the next two weeks there will be withdrawals of recognition of Kosovo's independence from two African countries, but he did not specify.
Even in the past, Serbia has announced the withdrawal of recognition from countries such as: Suriname, Burundi, Liberia, Solomon Islands, Madagascar, Ghana and others.
Most of the countries that Serbia claims have withdrawn recognition are from Africa.
Visoka had previously described the recognitions of Kosovo's independence as "irregular acts" that make no sense in the case of Kosovo, since the reasons cited in the initial recognitions - such as the 2010 finding of the International Court of Justice that Kosovo's independence does not violate international law - have not changed.
"In most cases, non-recognitions occur by states that are mainly post-colonial countries, without a long diplomatic tradition and that are known for their changeable foreign policy, which changes depending on the financial, economic, and even military assistance they receive from regional or international powers," Visoka said.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora (MFA) of Kosovo has accused Serbia of pressuring states to not recognize or withdraw recognition of Kosovo's independence.
According to her, Serbia is ignoring the commitments of the Agreement on the Path to Normalization, which the parties reached in Ohrid in 2023, by "refusing to recognize Kosovo and distorting international legal principles."
Apart from the hope from Kosovo and the fear from Serbia that recognizing Kenya could start a new trend of recognitions, recognizing Kenya in particular is important.
Of the African countries that have recognized Kosovo's independence so far, Kenya is the country with the second largest gross domestic product, after Egypt.
After the official recognition by Kenya, Kosovo's President, Vjosa Osmani, said that during the meeting with Kenya's President, William Ruto, they also discussed "opportunities for deepening cooperation in trade, education, tourism and other fields of common interest."
"Both our countries are committed to opening diplomatic missions as a concrete step towards a strong and sustainable partnership," Osmani wrote in X.
So far, Kenya's role in the Balkans has been limited to United Nations peacekeeping missions.
But, in Africa, and especially in East Africa, this country enjoys an important role as a regional power, through participation in various projects, such as the electric highway with Ethiopia and the East African Power Grid.
Kenya is also a founding member of the East African Community (EAC), whose chairmanship is currently held by President Ruto.
It has also played a key role in mediating conflicts within the region on several occasions.
For example, on March 28, Kenya sent former Prime Minister Raila Odinga to South Sudan, with the aim of preventing a return to civil war.
Since 2008, Kosovo has secured recognition from nearly 120 countries. In recent years, the MFA has been criticized by opposition figures and political pundits for not engaging in new recognitions.
Visoka says there are many reasons why Kosovo has not secured more recognition. Chief among them are “the shifting priorities of Kosovo’s foreign policy” and “Serbia’s proactive diplomatic campaign to prevent and, when possible, withdraw recognitions of Kosovo.”
According to him, the Washington Agreement, signed on September 4, 2021, also had an impact, when Kosovo agreed to respect a one-year moratorium, through which it would not apply for membership in international organizations.
"This has created the international impression that Kosovo is no longer interested in new recognitions, or that the path to recognition should go through EU-mediated dialogue to normalize relations with Serbia," says Visoka.
The Washington Agreement also obliged Serbia to suspend its initiative to convince various countries around the world to withdraw their recognition of Kosovo's independence.
Visoka says that many states fear that the recognition process could have destabilizing effects and undermine their interests, "therefore they tend to preserve the existing international order and prioritize territorial integrity over the right to self-determination."
But, according to him, this could change if the state seeking recognition, like Kosovo, engages in "proactive diplomacy" and "collaborates closely with its allies around the world."/ REL
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