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Increased Chinese purchases of agricultural land and its decades-long lease in areas near the border have further fueled suspicions.
China's recent moves show that Beijing has not forgotten the territory lost to Russia in the Far East during the "Century of Humiliation." This has fueled speculation that the world's longest land border could be exposed to Chinese claims, even as Beijing and Moscow appear as "partners without borders" on the international stage.
Changes to Chinese maps and border disputes
In 2023, China’s Ministry of Environment required that new official maps use the original Chinese names for cities in the area, including Vladivostok in Siberia. Another change was the depiction of an island at the confluence of the Ussuri and Amur rivers, the subject of a long-standing dispute and a 2008 border agreement, as entirely Chinese territory.
China’s increasing purchases of agricultural land and its decades-long leases in areas near the border have further fueled suspicions.
Strategic, but unbalanced partnership
Meanwhile, Chinese nationalists continue to demand the return of territories lost to Tsarist Russia in the 19th century. China has downplayed the changes in the maps, while continuing to emphasize its close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who took a seat of honor next to Xi Jinping during the June parade in Beijing.
China has been supporting Russia since the invasion of Ukraine began and since the imposition of severe international sanctions. As the main buyer of Russian gas and oil, China has helped keep Russia's war economy running. In turn, Russia benefits from record levels of trade and the use of the Chinese yuan in transactions, which softens the effects of the disconnection from SWIFT.
The two countries are increasingly synchronized diplomatically, contributing to the creation of a potential multilateral order that challenges American dominance. Joint military exercises in the Pacific have been seen by the US and its allies as a direct challenge to Washington's military influence in the region.
However, concerns have grown in Russia about its role as a "junior partner" in this relationship, with some propagandists close to the Kremlin warning that excessive dependence on China could have negative consequences.
Stable relationships, but with hidden tensions
A New York Times report earlier this year, based on a leaked Russian intelligence document, raised concerns about China's intentions to expand its influence. It said Chinese services have recruited Russian citizens with Chinese spouses and even administered polygraph tests to agents returning from Russia, reflecting a level of mutual distrust.
There is uncertainty about how much China intends to take advantage of the new power imbalance with Russia, and some analysts think the fears are exaggerated.
Patrick Cronin, of the Hudson Institute, told Newsweek that Xi Jinping sees Russia as an indispensable partner in creating a new world order after the US. He argued that Beijing is pursuing a slow strategy of increasing control in border areas while displaying public solidarity through parades and joint exercises.
According to him, China is ready to expand its influence on shared borders through cyberattacks and exploitation of Russian economic weakness.
The future of China-Russia relations
Lyle Goldstein, director of Asian engagement at Defense Priorities, believes that relations between China and Russia are the strongest in modern history.
"There is a little bit of daily resentment, especially from the Russian side that feels that China has not helped them enough in the war in Ukraine. But overall, the relationship is healthy and is strengthening in every direction," he said.
Goldstein added that the proximity of the two countries is also related to the strategic pressure exerted by the US and its allies.
According to him, the bilateral relationship has been "stable and without real crises for more than 30 years," and despite pessimistic forecasts in the West, no serious clashes are expected on the horizon. /Adapted from "Pamphlet", from "Newsweek"
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