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The messages from the EU are increasingly clear: countries on the European path have nothing to look to Russia for.
Under the shadow of a deepening political crisis and increasingly strong messages from Brussels, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić faces a key decision: whether, despite pressure from the European Union, he will travel to Moscow on Victory Day, further straining relations with the West, or for the first time openly disappoint the pro-Russian part of the domestic public, risking a decline in support on the domestic front.
In domestic discourse, President Vučić positioned himself as a great and fearless statesman who defends the country's international sovereignty. Presenting his policy as one of national interests, while balancing between East and West, it seems that the time has come for him to make a final decision.
The messages from the EU are increasingly clear - countries on the European path have nothing to look to Russia for, and Serbia certainly, at least declaratively, belongs to this category.
The political significance of this visit certainly has two aspects, one foreign policy and the other dedicated to the domestic public. At a time when the political crisis in Serbia does not seem to be ending, going to Moscow, besides being a flattering sign for the pro-Russian electorate, could also be a message to the protesters that external support exists, but instead of Europe, it comes from Russia and is not intended for them, but for them.
On the other hand, the foreign policy aspect of this decision would clearly position Serbia in this plan and would finally put an end to the question of whether the current regime truly intends to bring Serbia closer to Europe.
Dragomir Andelkovic says that going to Moscow is a double-edged sword for Vučić. On the one hand, according to him, mainly in the field of domestic politics, he could be hurt in one of them if he does not go to the Russian parade on the occasion of the Day of Victory over Nazi Germany.
On the other hand, it is dangerous for it from a foreign policy perspective. But, according to Andelkovic, in both cases the regime gets little positive, except for the reduction of negative things in some areas.
Regarding domestic politics, Angjelkovic says that Vučić's electorate is largely Russophile and that a large part of nationally oriented citizens have turned against the president because of Kosovo, and stories about improving ties with Russia cannot compensate for this.
However, if Vučić does not go to Moscow now due to fear of the EU's reaction, Andelković stresses that it is expected that the Russians, to whom he firmly promised to be their guests on May 9, will finally react harshly.
This would inevitably be reflected in the further decline of Vučić's rating, where he survived on the basis of false patriotic and Russophile stories. Again, if Vučić goes to Moscow because of this, his position in the EU will deteriorate greatly, which could be reflected in the fact that Brussels will finally have an objective view of him and will stop turning a blind eye to his cartel-authoritarian behavior, and will start actively supporting opponents of the SNS regime.
All that has been said makes the choice for Vučić very difficult. This time everything is reduced to an inevitable losing option, it is only a matter of time before he faces the consequences.
Ivan Lakićević from the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory tells me that for Vučić, going to Moscow would be a means of gaining support for preserving his model of governance, as the recently published FSB Report shows.
In addition, he emphasizes that this departure is a way to confirm his value orientation towards Russia, which is promoted by people from his environment, mainly in the media. However, he is forced to weigh these benefits against the deterioration of relations with the EU.
In the previous period, he failed to make Serbia independent from the EU, to which most of our exports go and from which most of our foreign direct investment comes. Therefore, the messages from EU officials that his departure to Moscow will jeopardize relations with the European Union make it clear that such an action would represent a serious risk/ Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “Danas”
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