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Rajoni dhe Bota2025-03-26 12:32:00

The US-Russia agreement, in the hands of the EU!

Shkruar nga Pamfleti

The US-Russia agreement, in the hands of the EU!

After three days of talks in Saudi Arabia, progress is finally being made.

These are two separate texts that describe agreements between the US and Russia, and the US and Ukraine.

There were some differences, but many were similar. All parties agreed to "ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of merchant ships for military purposes in the Black Sea."

They also agreed to "develop measures for the implementation... of the agreement on the prohibition of strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine."

President Zelensky expressed regret that there was no clear prohibition on attacks on civilian infrastructure.

He told reporters that Ukraine would immediately implement the Black Sea and energy ceasefires.

He also acknowledged his agenda with the US by saying he would "remain committed to helping achieve the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian prisoners, and the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children."

But then came a third document, released by the Kremlin, which muddied the waters.

The document imposes conditions that were not included in the initial agreement between the US and Russia.

It states that the Black Sea ceasefire would only come into effect when sanctions against Russian banks, insurance companies, firms, ports and ships are lifted.

In other words, they saw this agreement not only as a revival of the old Black Sea initiative from which they withdrew in 2023, but also as an opportunity to lift a significant number of economic sanctions.

However, achieving this could take some time and thus delay any naval ceasefire.

It may also not be entirely up to the US to make all the changes Russia is demanding.

For example, any return to the SWIFT financial messaging system would require EU approval.

The Kremlin also said that a 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure was due to begin on March 18 and could be suspended if either side violated the agreement.

In other words, what has been agreed upon is a fragile step towards reducing the fighting in Ukraine, but with no guarantee of success amid an atmosphere of mutual distrust.

Even if today's agreement were to survive, it is still a long way from the comprehensive nationwide ceasefire that the US originally wanted.

It is often said that ceasefires are processes, not events. And that is truer than ever for this agreement.

What matters is not the declaration of a ceasefire, but whether, and how, it will be implemented.

Will both sides make this agreement work and then fulfill it? Because in answering these questions we will learn a lot about what both sides really want.

Do they want a ceasefire to turn into a long-term peace? Or do they simply want to negotiate while seeking their advantage on the battlefield?

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