FLASH
Shkruar nga Richard Kemp
Like the fall of Basha Al-Assad, the end of the regime of the Ayatollahs would bring an obvious benefit to the security of the Middle East. But on the other hand, the rise of Erdogan with his Islamic agenda, could become the next big challenge for this troubled region.
Will Assad's ouster lead to the further fragmentation of Syria? What will be the biggest consequences for the Middle East? First, it is important to recognize the real dynamics behind this geopolitical shockwave.
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, blames the US and Israel for the overthrow of Bashar Al-Assad. In fact, President Joe Biden has proudly taken credit for what happened in Syria. This is something wonderful about his legacy, but far from the truth.
In reality, Joe Biden tried to thwart Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decisive campaign against Iran and the pro-Iranian militias - especially Hezbollah - that were directly responsible for Assad's downfall.
Instead of the USA, Israel's "partner" in overthrowing Assad was Turkey. Whether or not there was any coordination between the two, we can only speculate. But it is a fact that it was President Recep Tayyip Erdogan who promoted and supported Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which Turkey sponsors together with Qatar, to lead the operation towards the occupation of Damascus.
Above all other forces, the future of Syria will be largely influenced by Israel and Turkey. Both countries do not have friendly relations between them, but they have national security interests in Syria. Until Netanyahu ordered the destruction of Syria's military hardware last week, the country had for decades represented Israel's biggest direct conventional threat.
Thanks to Assad, Syria was also the main supply route from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Unlike Netanyahu, Erdogan has broader plans for the Middle East, including at least in his eyes the revival of the Ottoman caliphate. It maintains close ties to Qatar and Sunni jihadist groups in the region, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which may now lean even further toward Ankara as Iran experiences waning influence in the region.
As Erdogan's regional power grows, it poses a growing threat to Israel and many Arab countries. The 3.5 million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey are politically problematic for Erdogan, and he wants them to return home.
But his biggest priority is ending the idea of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria, which he sees as a direct threat to Turkey, given the pressures on Kurdish separatism in his country.
There are now signs that Erdogan is preparing for a major offensive against the Syrian Kurds. Despite their importance, the Kurds are only one part of an often deadly ethno-religious rivalry that includes Sunnis, Shiites, Alevis, Druze and Christians.
It is unlikely that HTS leader Al-Jolani will be able to reunite a long-divided country any more than Assad was able to do. Turkey may move to crack down on the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The SDF will certainly fight back, but their future will be more in doubt if President Trump carries out his apparent goal of withdrawing US troops from Northern Syria with which they are allied. The SDF has been the main contributor to the destruction of the Islamic State caliphate in Syria.
By fighting against Turkey for their survival, the Syrian Kurds would no longer have the capacity to fight against ISIS, which in these conditions could re-emerge more strongly. Russia together with Iran kept Assad in power. But now Moscow is making a forced review of its strategy towards Syria.
It seems unlikely that Putin is in the right position to help protect his Alevi allies. Iran has retreated, but it will not give up its malicious plans against Syria, despite this major setback.
Tehran has so far avoided direct criticism of HTS, and may be aiming to cultivate a long-term relationship or launch efforts to destabilize the new government. And none of these scenarios are beyond the cynical machinations of the ayatollahs.
But beyond Syria itself, what might be the consequences of Assad's forced departure to Russia? Islamist opposition groups in Jordan may take inspiration from how Al-Jolani seized power in Syria. Also, it is likely that HTS and other jihadists in Syria are eyeing the Kingdom of Jordan.
Their goal is the Islamic radicalization of the Levant. Although temporarily put on hold as this group tries to show muscle again in Syria, over time this aspiration is likely to return to the forefront. But Amani's problems don't end there.
Iran has long worked to destabilize Jordan. And after recent developments in Syria, it will become a bigger priority. Israel, the US and the UK have interests in Jordan's stability. Israel, in particular, has been a big supporter, and is more focused than ever on preventing the fall of King Abdullah.
As Iran aims to topple the latter, the Ayatollahs themselves have become more fragile. One of the main obstacles to the uprising against the regime was Syria's bloody 14-year civil war, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
Now the opposition in Iran may be emboldened by a combination of Tehran's weakness in the wake of recent strikes by Israel and inspiration from a successful and virtually bloodless revolt in Syria. If the incoming administration of Donald Trump allows Israel to dismantle Iran's nuclear program in the coming months, then this could become a tipping point that will bring about regime change in Tehran.
Like the fall of Basha Al-Assad, the end of the regime of the Ayatollahs would bring an obvious benefit to the security of the Middle East. But on the other hand, the rise of Erdogan with his Islamic agenda, could become the next big challenge for this troubled region./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Daily Telegraph"
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