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Ukraine wants the restoration of its territorial integrity and sovereignty; Moscow wants the subjugation of Ukraine as well as full control of its four provinces. These positions are irreconcilable and neither side has the military power to force the other to accept.
The prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House and his nomination of JD Vance, a hard-line isolationist, as his vice presidential running mate have raised the difficult question of what price is worth paying to bring peace in Ukraine. Trump has boasted, ludicrously, that he could end Vladimir Putin's brutal war of aggression against Ukraine overnight, without explaining how.
Former Trump advisers have sketched weak plans for a ceasefire in exchange for territorial concessions. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Europe's appeasement chief, went on a self-appointed "peace mission" to Kiev, the Kremlin and Mar-a-Lago, Trump's Florida estate.
Ukraine has also stepped up its efforts to establish the terms of a just peace. At the current levels of military support from its allies, Kiev does not have a realistic military path to liberate all of its lands. Fatigue is increasing. Millions of Ukrainians face a cold and dark winter after Russian missiles knocked out half of the country's power supply. Recent polls suggest that a large minority of Ukrainians now favor peace negotiations, with a growing number even willing to consider territorial concessions to buy peace.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed holding another multilateral peace conference before the US elections, to which Russia would be invited. His foreign minister has just visited China, Russia's most important diplomatic and material supporter. Ultimately, Kiev must decide when to negotiate an end to the war. However, for now, the chances of a successful peace process seem slim. Ukraine wants the restoration of its territorial integrity and sovereignty; Moscow wants the subjugation of Ukraine as well as full control of its four provinces. These positions are irreconcilable and neither side has the military power to force the other to accept.
Forcing Ukraine into an unfavorable settlement through threats to withhold further military aid, as some Trump supporters are proposing, would be a disaster not only for the country, but for European security and the West.
Of course, victory for Ukraine cannot be defined solely by the full and immediate restoration of its 1991 borders. Becoming a prosperous democracy embedded in the EU and free from Moscow's tutelage even with its partially occupied lands it would be a tremendous success. Ukrainian negotiators appeared ready to agree to such a deal in the weeks following Russia's full-scale invasion.
But after 29 months of aggression, many Ukrainians understandably see trading land for peace as a false prospect. Putin's objectives are not territorial, but imperial. He wants to end Ukraine as an independent nation. It would be the height of naivety to think that the Russian leader will negotiate in good faith or keep whatever promises he makes. Rewarding his aggression will encourage further aggression – and embolden Russia's allies in Beijing.
For Kiev to accept any deal - and for it to stick - its allies would have to offer significant security guarantees that would dilute the support they have provided so far. Are they ready to do this? Given the reluctance in Washington and other capitals to arm Ukraine over the past two and a half years, promises of further armaments will not be enough.
Ukraine will be in a better position next year to go on the offensive and improve its negotiating position. Indeed, Kiev's friends must remain determined to tilt the war more to Ukraine's advantage. This is especially true for Europeans who risk becoming bystanders to an unfair solution that seriously jeopardizes their security. They should increase their support and throw their weight behind Ukraine's efforts to seek a just peace. Putin will agree only when there is no alternative./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Financial Times"
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