FLASH
Shkruar nga Robert B.Zoellick
George HW Bush's campaign offers valuable lessons even today, although the circumstances are different.
Perhaps Kamala Harris hasn't had time to reflect on the 1988 presidential election, the last time a vice president was elected president by popular vote (and the first time since Martin Van Buren in 1836). George HW Bush's campaign offers valuable lessons even today, although the circumstances are different.
When I joined the Bush campaign to oversee policy agendas and campaign speeches in July 1988, some polls had the vice president as much as 17 percent behind his opponent. It took quite a bit of effort for Bush to get out of the huge shadow of President Ronald Reagan.
His task was to benefit from the latter's great legacy, but at the same time distinguish himself as a new leader. In turn, he had to face his Democratic rival, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis. With his speech to Congress, Bush reintroduced himself to the American public.
His speechwriter, Peggy Noonan, listened closely to the vice president, so his public statements influenced how he spoke privately. In her writings, she tried to avoid the pronoun "I", knowing that he had long since internalized his mother's instruction not to brag in public.
The speech began with Bush's personal history. He then explained what his mission would be as president. People need to know why a candidate wants to be president, and why #2 should advance to the highest office. Even Ms. Harris must answer these questions as she tells her story.
It can underline that the Democratic Party has recognized the desire of the citizens for an epochal change that must take place. It must also take a stand on political culture: Bush attacked Dukakis for his veto of a 1977 bill that would have required Massachusetts teachers to lead their classrooms in the Pledge of Allegiance.
Harris must also repeatedly ask Trump whether he will accept the results of a free and fair election, a vital tenet of democracy. But in the meantime, it must find ways to distance itself from the "Woke" policy of the extreme left, treating its electoral base with respect.
Choosing a running mate is the first independent decision a presidential candidate can make. Bush chose Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana. Quayle was young and brought congressional experience and contacts. Ms. Harris's candidacy should be such as to highlight her centrism and her desire to bring Americans closer together.
The selection of a governor from another part of the country would bring executive ability and the prospect of great support. Harris should be careful not to simply follow President Biden's campaign playbook, emphasizing the risk of a second Donald Trump presidency.
It should show the substance of the policy - and that it is able to work - while pointing out the stark contrasts with both Trump's views and his often erratic demeanor. Dukakis was running on his own merits while sidetracking them on more substantive issues.
In September and October, Bush devoted time to a variety of policy topics, giving positive speeches that drew contrasts with his rival and using visuals that reinforced his message. By November, Bush had succeeded in presenting his serious agenda, and in highlighting Dukakis' weaknesses.
Harris has at least 7 opportunities to follow a similar approach. She has already spoken energetically on the issue of abortion. It could criticize Trump's justice system appointees, who secured the votes to overturn the Supreme Court's landmark Roe vs. Wade decision.
Harris' position will be that Democrats support safe care and a woman's right to make decisions about her own body. But she would be wiser to show respect for other views on life, treating abortion as a sad circumstance while encouraging adoption.
Second, Harris must address a very delicate issue: illegal immigration. Bush turned environmentalism to his advantage, with an event on Boston Harbor and an agenda for clean air, safe beaches and wetlands. Kamala Harris must acknowledge the failures of the Biden administration while promoting the specifics of the bipartisan bill in the Senate, led by Sen. James Lankford, that was rejected by Trump.
Next, it should challenge Trump's promise of mass deportation as a humanitarian and economic disaster, and as another example of his ineffectiveness, such as the project to build the wall on the border with Mexico.
Third, Harris should openly confront those dissatisfied with the high level of inflation. Inflation and interest rates are falling. But Trump's high tariffs, hostility to beneficial immigration, calls for a weak dollar and attacks on the Federal Reserve would push inflation higher again.
Harris must show how he will help Americans compete, and use trade to their advantage through digital deals, renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act and expanding the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact.
Fourth, it must explain to the Americans the strategic importance of military and financial support to Ukraine. This is to highlight the contrast between her and Trump - who is fascinated by Vladimir Putin - but also to emphasize the danger of JDVance's theses, which would lead the USA to isolation. By pushing Europe harder to transfer Russia's frozen assets to Ukraine, Harris could show he recognizes the need for alliance partners to do more.
Fifth, every presidential candidate must show that they understand the great importance of national defense. Any proponent of a tougher approach to China wants more money for a bigger defense budget. However, Ms. Harris should add that neither Mr. Trump nor Joe Biden have properly modernized the Defense Department. She must make it clear that America no longer has the luxury of being left behind.
Sixth, Mrs. Harris must be the vanguard of the future. Unlike her 78-year-old opponent, she should welcome the potential of Artificial Intelligence to improve productivity, medicine, education and America's innovative edge. Ms. Harris could point out, contrary to the Republican platform, that the US and close partners can be leaders in the use of AI, keeping critical infrastructure safe, protecting us from biological weapons and cyber attacks.
Finally, I say Ms. Harris needs to recognize that a budget deficit of 7 percent of GDP and a federal debt near a postwar high of 104 percent puts the US at far greater risk. Interest rate spending alone is now close to spending on defense and the Medicare health care system.
In addition to her fiscal program, Harris should state that she will seek spending restraint, and at least a reconsideration of Joe Biden's damaging industrial policies.
Vice President Bush managed to overcome his initial margin of 17 percent, and in the end won by 8 percent more votes, having a majority in 40 states and 426 electoral votes. Vice President Harris would benefit greatly if she starts running her campaign now, and not Mr. Biden's./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Wall Street Journal"
*Note: Robert Zoellick, served as White House Deputy Chief of Staff in 1992-1993, US Trade Representative in 2001-2005, Deputy/Secretary of State in 2005-2006, and President of the World Bank in 2007-2012.
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