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US President Donald Trump's claim that all of Iran could be "annihilated" overnight does not match the real military capabilities of the US and Israel, according to a military analyst.
Peter Layton, a researcher at the Griffith Asia Institute and former Royal Australian Air Force officer, analyzed what the US and Israel could accomplish in practice if they were to target hundreds of power plants and perhaps hundreds of thousands of bridges within 24 hours.
For a hypothetical scenario, Layton did some calculations. He estimated that a formation of six B-2 stealth bombers could carry a total of 96 2,000-pound JDAM bombs on a single mission. If these planes flew two sorties a day, that would total 192 bombs, assuming they all hit their targets.
This scenario also adds a joint US-Israeli force of 40 F-15 aircraft, each equipped with six bombs of the same category, which would bring an additional 240 bombs.
In total, this means about 332 bombs for a much larger number of targets.
Even if every bomb hits its target, Layton points out that this may not be enough.
“The missiles would cause some damage to any target, but are unlikely to bring down medium or large bridges (this depends on many factors). Power plants are usually very large targets and require very careful planning for a single hit to cause significant damage. They are also fortified, with a lot of reinforced concrete as part of the basic structure,” he explains.
However, he does not rule out the possibility of serious damage.
“If you do manage to break through, the generators can be damaged, and there are usually no backup generators available,” Layton adds regarding power plants.
The US could also include B-1 bombers (with about 24 JDAM bombs each) or B-52s (with about 20 bombs each). However, even with these additional capabilities, the ability to “annihilate” all of Iran overnight remains highly questionable.
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