FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
So the situation for Biden is 'pull and don't snap' at a time when the election is six months away.
Setting red lines is a very good thing, as long as they are punished when crossed. President Joe Biden knows this all too well. Too often these lines in the sand turn out to be a flawed tool of geopolitical diplomacy.
Western leaders drop these lines in keynote speeches as clear threats. "Cross the line, if you dare..." it's all rhetoric.
Barack Obama's chemical weapons red line with Syria's Assad in 2012 was crossed. Biden's Ukraine red line with Putin in 2021 has been crossed.
Each red line is distinct and, of course, they differ in terms of the severity of the event they seek to prevent. But the principle behind their placement is the same, as the message is set when they intersect.
Rafah has become Biden's red line
Over the past six months, as Israel has managed to defeat Hamas in Gaza, President Biden thought he would not have to draw red lines. After all, Israel is one of America's closest allies.
Instead, the Biden administration thought soft diplomacy and honest back channels with a 'close friend of America' would do it. But gradually, as Biden and the Netanyahu government shifted more and more to the protection of civilians and a plan for 'tomorrow' in Gaza, a red line, Rafah, began to emerge.
This has become Biden's red line for Israel.
The US president has repeatedly made clear his opposition to Netanyahu's insistence on a ground occupation of southern Gaza City (Netanyahu's own red line) where some 1.4 million people live, half of them under the age of 18.
The Israeli army has not (yet) moved into the town of Rafah, but instead is concentrating its operations east of the town and around the crossing to Egypt. This fact has allowed the Biden administration to claim that its red line has not yet been crossed.
" They didn't describe it as a major ground operation ," spokesman John Kirby said this week.
Is the aid cut merely symbolic?
Sometimes, the red lines are broken. Sometimes, they are gradually removed. The announcement now, revealed a few days ago, that America has "paused" an arms shipment to Israel is significant.
It hasn't been done before and symbolically for Israel, in the midst of its longest and most critical war, it looks terrible. It's an attempt by Biden to plug a hole in his red line. A warning to Netanyahu.
Israeli officials are said to be "deeply frustrated". That's Biden's goal. But really, is it just symbolic?
It is highly inconceivable that America will abandon Israel in terms of arms supplies. This delivery may have been interrupted. But others will continue including defensive weapons.
Biden is pulling many of the levers he has to influence Netanyahu. He has other levers where he can get a good grip on the issue of settler violence in the West Bank, but with every lever he pulls, there is a political toll.
Almost all Republicans oppose any lever he pulls, and so do a significant number of his fellow Democrats.
But critical voters in key states are strongly pro-Palestine. So the situation for Biden is 'pull and don't pull it' at a time when the elections are six months away./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "SkyNews"
Lini një Përgjigje