FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
If a Trump 2 were to return to the habit of treating allies (Europe, Japan, South Korea) and rivals (China) alike, very difficult times await in transatlantic relations.
The war in the Middle East is helping to sink President Joe Biden in the polls. The news appears in a sympathetic newspaper, always aligned with the democratic camp. The New York Times publishes a poll that sees Donald Trump ahead of the incumbent in five key states where the next electoral challenge could be decided.
Foreign policy has earned a place among the causes of Biden's unpopularity, alongside traditional explanations (inflation, immigration, crime). There are still 12 months left until the next elections, but it should be noted that everything can change. However, it is significant that the right could also take advantage of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East — which erupted during the Biden presidency — to argue that the world was more stable and America safer under the Trump administration. Even the entry of Barack Obama on the scene risks not being beneficial for Biden.
Two very aggressive candidates: why?
A keen observer of American election campaigns, Karl Rove (who was George W. Bush's victory strategist) notes that the behavior of the two leading candidates for the White House shows uncertainty. On paper, Joe Biden is certain to get his party's nomination, even if most of the Democratic base doesn't want him for a second term. The hopes of those who deem him too old for the role have been pinned on his decision to retire, of which there is currently no sign. But if Biden really is so sure he has the nomination in his pocket, there's no explaining the frenzied, loud and chaotic attacks his aides have launched against a semi-unknown who dares to challenge him.
This is Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips, who is also running for the nomination. Phillips made this choice with great respect for Biden, for whom he expresses appreciation and admiration. He appreciates the president for having governed well. He just thinks he's too old, that's all. Phillips has very little chance and therefore the White House may treat him kindly. Instead, Biden's team insulted him. This is foolish behavior, which can only have one explanation: the Biden team is in control of deep insecurity. In fact, this president's approval rating continues to plummet.
A similar discussion applies to the other area. According to polls, Donald Trump continues to have a comfortable lead over his immediate followers, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. The most recent poll puts Trump at 46% of the vote (among Republicans who will vote in the primary) against DeSantis and Haley both at 16%. Even in this case, there is no explanation why Trump continues to insult his competitors within the party. From the height of his advantage, the most logical course of action would be just the opposite: he should manage his wealth of support and appease those Republicans who do not trust him, he should try to attract as many supporters of DeSantis and Haley as possible. , with gestures of inclusion and appreciation, not contempt. Maybe it's a matter of character, maybe Trump is incapable of being "inclusive." But there is a suspicion that he does not trust the polls either and feels that his lead is less solid than it appears. After all, Rove notes, among Republicans who are still undecided and those who prefer other candidates, nearly 60% of the party's base isn't invested in Trump at all.
What kind of presidency would Trump's second term be?
However, for now we have to work on the numbers we have, and therefore we have to assign some probability to the hypothesis of a Trump 2. So we have to ask ourselves what kind of presidency that would be. The first would be isolationism in foreign policy. Another near-certainty, if there is to be a second Trump term, is a new wave of protectionist measures.
One of the ideas presented by Trump is to introduce a generalized tax of 10% on all imports, without distinction between goods or geographical origin. As a sort of flat customs duty, it would have the advantage of simplicity and allow us to avoid many forms of circumvention.
The "mainstream" experts predict that it would be a disaster. Among them I include newspapers such as The Economist, Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, which have always condemned protectionism and always predicted an economic apocalypse caused by tariffs. The apocalypse that didn't happen in time. But as in other areas, prophets of doom never accept the verdict of reality, they propose their own catastrophic scenarios while ignoring the facts that refute them.
Who deserves credit for re-industrializing the US?
Claims that Trump's tariffs have not helped American exporters are partly true, but need to be explained. On the one hand, many obligations have been circumvented, for example with the "modest quantity" law that allowed the Chinese to divert a significant portion of exports through e-commerce giants duty-free. On the other hand, the effect of tariffs in terms of reindustrialization takes an average duration to materialize. The Economist admits that a reindustrialization of the United States is underway and gives credit for it to Biden, but ignores the fact that Biden kept Trump's tariffs intact.
The real problem... is about Europe
The Economist, in another historical article, recalls a truth: almost throughout its existence, the United States of America has been a nation protected by strong protectionist barriers. If a Trump 2 were to return to the habit of treating allies (Europe, Japan, South Korea) and rivals (China) alike, very difficult times await in transatlantic relations.
An America retreating from its global role would be another "black swan"—a highly unlikely event, with devastating consequences if it did occur. Black swans must be very rare. But from September 11, 2001 to the mortgage crisis in 2008, from the Trump and Brexit victories in 2006 to the pandemic, from the war in Ukraine to the Hamas massacre, events considered "impossible" have become frequent. Even a Trump 2 seems, reasonably, absurd. Maybe it's better to start "THINKING it happening" to see the effect from afar?/ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
Lini një Përgjigje