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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The United States of America is made up of 50 states, but in presidential elections some states are more important than others.
While many "safe states" usually vote reliably for the Democratic or Republican candidate, in the so-called "swing states", the majority of votes sometimes go to one and sometimes to the candidate of the other party.
This gives them a special weight in the pre-election campaign, because the result of the elections in them can decide who will become president. Therefore, the attention is focused on the "volatile" states, where the most massive pre-election rallies are held.
The electoral process is complex and controversial
The main role of "swing states" can be explained by the electoral system known as the Electoral College. Unlike most other countries, in the US, the president and vice president are not directly elected by the voters. Instead, the electors vote for the so-called electors from the electoral college. To enter the White House, it is necessary to win the votes of at least 270 of the 538 members of this College.
In this complex and contested electoral process, it may happen that a candidate receives the majority of the electorate's votes, but does not win the majority of the votes of the College, that is, does not become president. This happened in 2000 when Al Gore lost to George W. Bush or in 2016 when Donald Trump won, but Hillary Clinton had more votes.
The list of topics changes – due to population, demographic changes or changes in attitudes towards important issues. For most people in the US, the main issues of the election are the economy and inflation. While the attitude towards the right to abortion will play a big role in the participation in the elections. But apart from these themes, each unstable country has its own set of major issues.
Arizona
One of the main issues of the Arizona election is closely related to geography. The country shares a long border with Mexico and has become a hotspot for illegal immigration.
As vice president, Kamala Harris was tasked with easing the border crisis by fighting the "cause" in the US's neighboring states. In the eyes of many Americans, she has failed to do so, and Donald Trump takes every opportunity to highlight this.
The influx of immigrants makes Arizona one of the fastest growing states in the country. Almost a third of the population is of Latin American origin. In the elections, it will be important to win over this group of voters.
Arizona is trying to strengthen its economy by strengthening its manufacturing sector. As part of the CHIPS ACT of 2022, $280 billion is earmarked to encourage research and manufacturing of computer chips in the US. About 80 billion is planned for factories and the creation of new jobs alone, however it will take time for the new factories to be operational.
In 2020, Biden won in this country.
Number of voters: 11 million
Current status:
Kamala Harris: 46.7
Donald Trump: 48.6
Georgia
In the last election, Biden won in Georgia, winning only 0.2 percent of the vote more than Donald Trump. It was the first time since 1992 that this state voted for Democrats. The percentage of black voters is about 33 percent, one of the highest in the US. This could work in Kamala Harris' favor.
Georgia is also the state where a grand jury indicted Trump and others for trying to rig the previous presidential election. But these processes will not end before this year's elections.
In 2020, Biden won in Georgia.
Number of voters: 16 million
Current status:
Kamala Harris: 46.9
Donald Trump: 48.7
Michigan
When it comes to Michigan, it's almost impossible not to mention the automotive industry. There are the headquarters of Ford, General Motors and Chrysler, which is now part of Stellantis. Manufacturing jobs are of key importance to this region. Biden recently imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to prevent competition.
Michigan is the home state of Gretchen Whitmer, a popular Democratic governor who has long been an aunt in the eyes of Republicans.
However, to express their displeasure with Biden, in the February primary, more than 100,000 people pressured undecideds to vote for others.
Harris must convince the state's many Arab-American voters. Their support for the Democrats has wavered, as the party has sided with Israel in Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza.
In 2020, Biden won in Michigan
Number of voters: 15 million
Current status:
Kamala Harris: 47.4
Donald Trump: 47.2
Nevada
Because of Nevada's proximity to the southern US border as well, migration is a key issue. Most of the population of this country lives in cities. Almost a third of the population is of Latin American origin.
Nevada is heavily dependent economically on tourism and during the Biden administration has seen the highest economic growth among swing states. At the same time, the unemployment rate in this state is the highest in the country.
In 2020, Biden won in Nevada
Number of voters: 6 million
Current status:
Kamala Harris: 47.6
Donald Trump: 47.1
North Carolina
In the previous eleven elections, the Democrats managed to win this state only once. Before Biden dropped out of the race in July, Trump had a solid lead in the polls here. But now Kamala Harris has improved the situation.
North Carolina has undergone a strong demographic change in the past 30 years: the population has grown significantly, and the share of the white population has fallen from 75 percent to 60 percent. A diverse population comes to North Carolina, from ex-military, to retirees, to highly educated people.
In 2020, Trump won North Carolina
Number of voters: 16 million
Current status:
Kamala Harris: 47.5
Donald Trump: 48.0
Pennsylvania
More than most other states, Pennsylvania is burdened by the rising cost of living. Fracking has made this state the nation's largest producer of natural gas, second only to Texas. Trump has long supported fracking, while Harris previously called for a ban, is now keeping his options open and plans to introduce stricter laws.
The first, and possibly last, televised showdown between Harris and Trump took place in Pennsylvania on September 10.
In 2020, Biden won in Pennsylvania
Number of voters: 19 million
Current status:
Kamala Harris: 47.5
Donald Trump: 47.9
Wisconsin
Wisconsin is the state with the majority white population and the highest participation in presidential elections. In both 2016 and 2020, the incumbent won Wisconsin by less than 25,000 votes. This shows how important each individual vote can be in this country.
In 2020, Biden won in Wisconsin
Number of voters: 10 million
Current status:
Kamala Harris: 47.8
Donald Trump: 47.6
Looking at the current situation, Trump leads in 4 and Harris in 3 of these seven states. The polls were conducted on October 19 and 20. According to these polls, across the country, Kamala Harris currently has 48.2 percent of the vote, while Donald Trump has 46.4 percent of the vote./ DW
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