FLASH
Shkruar nga PamfletiUS President Trump is facing what could be the biggest decision of his presidency, amid enormous domestic and global pressures, as well as counter-pressures pushing him in opposite directions.
Given that no analyst on the planet thought the drama with Iran would still be going on in February, let alone almost March, there are four generally expected scenarios for when the next war with Iran could begin if a deal is not reached.
According to "The Jerusalem Post", developments in the coming days and weeks will determine whether US President Donald Trump will order a military strike against Tehran or choose to extend the diplomatic window.
Scenario 1: Attack within a few days
The first scenario sees Trump ordering an attack on Iran between Sunday and Thursday. This could happen if he has already made the decision to strike Tehran but is waiting for the finalization of some military elements, as well as a clear signal that negotiations with the Islamic Republic are not yielding the necessary results.
Another possibility is that Iran could present a proposal on Thursday that Trump would immediately reject, paving the way for military action. However, that option is considered less likely, as US officials have said a US-Iran meeting is planned, which could prompt the president to wait to assess the Iranian offer.
Scenario 2: Strike early or mid-next week
This is considered by many analysts to be the most likely scenario. Last week, Trump set a two-week deadline for the Islamic Republic to reach an agreement, warning that otherwise he would take military action. Since then, the deadline has been sometimes confirmed and sometimes relativized in his statements.
If Trump decides to give Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, the entire two-week deadline and after reviewing Tehran's new proposal finds it insufficient, then the attack could occur early or mid-next week.
Scenario 3: Attack immediately after Ramadan
The third scenario postpones the start of the military operation until immediately after March 19, with the end of Ramadan.
Trump may not want to start a regional war during the holiest month for Muslims. An attack during this period could affect the readiness of the US's Sunni allies in the region, especially in the face of a possible response from Khamenei.
On the other hand, an attack during Ramadan could reinforce the Iranian leadership's narrative of a foreign intervention in the Middle East, shifting attention away from the regime's domestic repression of the Iranian people.
However, due to the duration of tensions since late December and the increasing cost of maintaining a large US military presence in the region, the second scenario seems somewhat more likely.
Scenario 4 (less likely): Postponement for a longer period
The fourth scenario envisages an attack in a more distant time horizon.
The cost to the US is huge: two aircraft carriers, more than a dozen destroyers, and hundreds of other aircraft are in the Middle East on standby for a possible escalation.
Most analysts do not believe that Trump will carry such an “armada” beyond mid-March without using it or reaching a deal. However, three factors remain:
Analysts' previous predictions have been refuted.
Iran has considerable ability to prolong negotiations.
Trump faces one of the biggest decisions of his presidency, under strong domestic and international pressure.
These factors may push him towards a prolonged wait, hoping for a clearer and more favorable solution than an open war or an agreement that may be perceived as weak.
Israel's role and Tehran's stance
Initially, Israeli analysts were divided on whether Khamenei would order an attack on Israel in response to a US strike.
Some believed that a reaction would be inevitable, while others believed that, if Jerusalem kept its distance from the conflict, the Islamic Republic would limit itself to attacks against American bases and ships in the region.
However, over time, Israeli leaders have toughened rhetoric about possible involvement in a US attack against the Iranian regime.
This increases the likelihood that Tehran will also strike Israel, either in retaliation or preemptively, if the Israeli Defense Forces are involved in the operation. / Taken from the Jerusalem Post
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