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The United States must fundamentally rethink its relationship with the Gulf states due to the ever-increasing financial costs. This is the warning of Mark Kimmitt, a former US assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, who argues that Washington cannot maintain the same level of military engagement in the region indefinitely.
" Frankly, the United States cannot afford this much longer ," Kimmitt told Al Jazeera.
He was referring to what economist Niall Ferguson calls the "Ferguson Rule," the point at which national debt payments exceed defense spending. According to Kimmitt, the US has already passed this critical point.
" This is the end of an empire. We reached this point two years ago. And when the Department of Defense now proposes a $1.5 trillion defense budget, the gap is only going to widen ," he said.
However, the former American official stressed that he is not talking about the US withdrawing from the global stage, but about a strategic rebalancing of relations in the Middle East.
" I'm not saying America should withdraw from the world. But I think we need to reexamine our relationships in this region for many reasons ," he added.
Kimmitt's comments come at a time of high tensions in the Persian Gulf, as the US faces huge military costs, domestic economic pressure and intense political debate over the American role in Middle East conflicts.
Asked about the possibility of normalizing relations between Iran and its Gulf Arab neighbors, Kimmitt expressed skepticism, describing Tehran as a destabilizing power in the region.
" Iran is a hegemonic predator. I think it will take significant regime change in Iran before there can be normalized relations with its Gulf neighbors ," he declared.
According to him, Iran's current relations with Arab countries are not based on mutual respect, but on pressure and threats.
" The current relationship is not built on mutual respect. It is based on pressure and threats ," Kimmitt concluded.
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