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Military pressure increases, but Hormuz and geopolitical balances make the outcome uncertain
As US President Donald Trump's ultimatum nears expiration, the war in the Middle East enters a crucial phase, with the United States and Israel intensifying attacks on targets in Iran, but without a clear strategic outcome.
After six weeks of intense bombing, Tehran seems to have come to the conclusion that it will not be the only losing party in this conflict. In some scenarios, the situation could even result in strengthening its regional position.
Trump's recent statements, including the warning that "an entire civilization will die tonight," have opened up a wide range of interpretations. However, analysts emphasize that some of this rhetoric must be seen in the context of the US president's political style, known for maximum statements and public pressure.
From a military perspective, the US's ability to hit Iran hard is unquestionable. Washington has the capacity to destroy the country's energy and military infrastructure. But, as the analysis points out, this does not translate into the ability to "wipe out a civilization."
Iran represents a deep historical and social structure, where even in the event of severe shocks, the system and society have the capacity to survive and recover in time. Also, any military operation affects not only state structures, but also the civilian population, without distinguishing between supporters and opponents of the regime.
In this context, the US faces a familiar historical dilemma: how to emerge from a conflict of its own choosing. Examples like Vietnam or Afghanistan show that military superiority does not guarantee a clear political or strategic exit.
According to the analysis, Washington's recent actions have limited the space for a controlled withdrawal, while each new strike, in addition to physical damage, also undermines the political narrative of a "quick victory."
Against this backdrop, Trump's statements could also be interpreted as an attempt to impose a quick result – a "high-risk move" that he has often used in his career, but which in this case has much broader geopolitical consequences.
One of the key elements of this crisis remains the Strait of Hormuz. Before the conflict began, Iran did not use this card, although it had the capacity to do so. Today, the situation has changed: the strait has become Tehran's main strategic tool.
Control – even indirectly – over this key point of global energy trade gives Iran new diplomatic weight. Even if the US manages to secure temporary military control, long-term possession and management of this area remains a major challenge.
In practice, any long-term solution to Hormuz is likely to involve Iran, regardless of who is in power in Tehran. This, the analysis says, constitutes a “surprise gift” for Iran: de facto recognition as an indispensable actor in the regional security architecture.
Thus, as military pressure on Tehran increases and the ultimatum clock counts down the final minutes, the reality on the ground remains complex: a conflict where military superiority does not guarantee a political outcome and where any further development could reshape the balances throughout the region. / Adapted from "Protothema"
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