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Russia will be able to regroup defensively faster than Europe and NATO after the end of the war in Ukraine, writes the Wall Street Journal and explains why this will happen.
Although Russia has lost a large amount of equipment in Ukraine, it will be able to rebuild its armed forces within a few years after the end of the war.
However, NATO has exhausted its stockpile of weapons to support Ukraine. Consequently, building a credible defense in Europe to defend against a possible Russian invasion, especially given the threat of US non-intervention, would endanger the social model of the European Union.
Even with significant spending to build a European military capable of repelling a Russian attack without US help, it would take at least 20 years, according to a 2019 analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Since it takes years for the military to plan, equip and train armies, European defense policymakers must make decisions now, explaining to the public the need to cut social spending. For many, one option is to increase defense spending to 3% of GDP.
Ukrainians are upset by the attitude of the Europeans
Mykhailo Podoliak, one of the closest advisers to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the eve of the decisive summit of EU leaders where one of the topics to be discussed is Ukraine accusing Europe of cronyism. "On the one hand, you're an ally and you have to help Ukraine in the war," he told Politico before adding, "On the other hand, you're trying to protect your market."
Relations between Kiev and its European allies are at a critical juncture after weeks of protests by farmers in Poland and elsewhere against agricultural imports from Ukraine, which they worry are driving down prices for their produce.
EU countries are split on whether to expand duty-free imports of Ukrainian goods, with Poland and France calling for tighter restrictions.
As Podoliak complains, European countries continue to do business with Russia, even as the fighting drags on.
"I find it strange," he said. "At the same time you are financing the defense of Ukraine, which is defending itself against Russia. Your companies finance the Russian federal budget, 42% of which goes directly to the war. So you are here and there at the same time," he adds.
He also noted that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted conflict and that it is delaying increasing costs for Western countries and Ukraine.
"Russia is interested in a long war and the Western countries will get tired and say: that's it, let's look for a compromise solution. But there is no compromise solution for this war", he concluded.
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