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On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a 20-point peace plan, drafted by Ukrainian and American officials, that represents a major shift from an October plan that would essentially force Ukraine to cede territory and rule out NATO membership.
Zelensky presented this new proposal as a reasonable compromise compared to the plan prepared by Kirill Dmitriev, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy, and Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy, unveiled in November.
The plan includes security guarantees that Kiev seeks to prevent future Russian aggression, as well as plans for rebuilding the war-torn country.
However, a Kremlin emboldened by Moscow's advances on the ground and constrained by the difficulty of presenting the new plan to the Russian public as a victory is unlikely to accept it.
“Currently, this is pure mockery,” Aleksei Naumov, an international affairs analyst in Moscow, said of the new Ukrainian plan in a Telegram post. “The goal is clear: to present it to the Americans as a ‘compromise’ and then blame Russia for its failure.”
What are Russia’s main points?
Over the past two years, Putin has insisted on two main conditions: Ukraine must withdraw its forces from the remaining parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and NATO membership must be ruled out.
He confirmed this position during his annual press conference on Friday, saying that Russia could make some "concessions", believed to include handing over some Russian-held territories in the Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions.
But he stressed that Moscow remains ready to continue the fight to fully take control of the Donetsk region.
The Ukrainian plan foresees the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Ukraine will also withdraw troops from areas of Donetsk that will become demilitarized zones, but only if Russia withdraws from an equal amount of territory.
“The plan does not offer any compromises on the territories or the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant,” said Russian analyst Georgi Bovt, referring to the plant currently controlled by Russian forces but which Ukraine wants to operate jointly with the United States. “The failure to resolve the territorial issue makes the plan unacceptable.”
Why might Russia reject the plan?
Although Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been costly for both the Russian economy and Moscow's military, the Kremlin still seems to believe it can gain more by fighting.
The Russian economy is at its weakest point since 2022, with interest rates at record levels and growth rates falling towards recession.
But despite sanctions imposed by the West because of the war, analysts say the country is still far from the kind of economic crisis that would force the Kremlin to change course.
Russia occupies about three-quarters of the Donetsk region. At the current pace of their advance, it would take Moscow's forces about 18 months to capture the entire region.
Dmitry A. Medvedev, Russia's aggressive security official and former president, said Wednesday that about 417,000 recruits signed new contracts to join the Russian Army in 2025, a figure largely in line with estimates by independent researchers.
The constant influx of new recruits means that Russia can afford to continue the war despite heavy losses.
Why is Russia still in negotiations?
Experts say Russia has an interest in negotiating a peace deal to maintain a functional relationship with Washington and avoid full responsibility for the conflict.
Moscow also has an interest in delaying further sanctions or economic restrictions from the US. Sanctions imposed by Trump in October on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil forced Russia to sell oil at significant discounts.
The "push and pull" over potential peace terms also deepens divisions between Ukraine and its Western allies, as details are discussed in different capitals.
On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had been briefed on the new proposals and that Moscow was forming its position.
“Our friends in the United States are fully informed about the main parameters of the Russian position,” he said.
Analysts estimate that the diplomatic game of commitment-rejection over peace terms will continue as the war progresses.
“Putin has no intention of ending the war in Ukraine and is not ready to make even minor compromises at this stage,” analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said in a Facebook post.
“For the Kremlin, the discussion of Trump’s peace plan is simply a tactical game with the US to maintain constructive relations with the US president while causing tensions and contradictions between the US and Ukraine,” he added./ New York Times
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