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Recently, Lukashenko has been encouraged by the presence of mercenary fighters of the Wagner Group in his country...
Described as "the last European dictator", the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has escalated tensions with NATO. But is he close to involving his country in the Russia-Ukraine war - against the wishes of his electorate?
In office since July 1994, despite rising levels of internal dissent, the Belarusian leader has held on to power with increasing levels of Russian support, while Lukashenko has recently been emboldened by the presence of Wagner Group mercenary fighters in his country. .
But that has led to rising tensions with Poland (a NATO member) and reported threats near the border, which risks tarnishing his legacy by involving Belarus in Russia's war in Ukraine.
Lukashenko is a shrewd politician who has maintained a firm grip on power for the past three decades. An advocate for a "state union" with the Russian Federation, many analysts believe Lukashenko sees himself as President Putin's natural successor.
However, Lukashenko also acknowledges that Belarusian popular opinion does not support closer ties with Russia, and polls suggest there is almost no support for Belarus going to war with Ukraine.
As a result, Lukashenko must balance the often conflicting ambitions of the Russian leader and his electorate.
After Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup attempt six weeks ago, it was widely reported that Lukashenko was responsible for brokering a deal to convince Prigozhin to abandon his march.
President Putin was clearly shaken by the most significant threat to his authority in decades and needed time to consolidate his position and restore his authority, and so Lukashenko's intervention provided an invaluable lifeline for the Russian president at war.
Vladimir Putin also needed to remove the immediate threat of Wagner, so Lukashenko offered to take the mercenary group and its leader Prigozhin to Belarus as a short-term palliative.
This invaluable support at such a critical time for Putin also gave Lukashenko a fleeting opportunity to step into the international spotlight and exploit a rare moment of leverage in his relations with Russia.
Lukashenko goaded Poland, implying that the Belarus-based Wagner forces posed a threat to them and that Lukashenko should be thanked for stopping Wagner's fighters who he said would "go on a trip to Warsaw and Rzeszow".
There were also reports of Belarusian helicopters involved in border violations - all designed to heighten tensions with Belarus' NATO neighbors.
However, this inflammatory rhetoric of the Belarusian leader made him the second most popular leader in Russia. Lukashenko's regular media appearances were further evidence that he was enjoying his "15 minutes of fame"./ Sky News
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