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Those who care about democracy in Turkey should not be fooled by Erdogan's tactical moves. What may seem like moderation is actually the final stage in consolidating his rule...
Since Turkey's presidential election in May, Western analysts have hoped that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will moderate his style of rule. Fueling their optimism, Erdogan has taken several steps, including appointing market-friendly technocrats to his economic team, replacing the hardline interior minister, shedding anti-Western rhetoric and voicing support for Sweden's membership in the NATO.
However, all these moves are aimed at strengthening Erdogan's sole rule, and the West is helping him. Erdogan's cabinet reshuffle has brought in technocrats but also sidelined potential challengers — most notably Süleyman Soylu, a fiercely nationalist, anti-Western former interior minister who was once seen as the regime's "second man."
After the election, Erdogan removed him and began to purge Turkey's bureaucracy of Soylu loyalists. Hulusi Akar, a former defense minister, was seen as another possible successor.
Erdogan's choice as defense minister and new appointments to the military high command suggest he is tightening his grip on what was once Turkey's most powerful institution. Erdogan's efforts to suppress his opponents continue unabated.
His most formidable political rival, rights activists and journalists remain in prison despite rulings by the European Court of Human Rights. After his election victory, a court began a case against Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul's popular opposition mayor, accused of tender-rigging.
After being convicted last year of "insulting a public official," İmamoğlu was effectively barred from running against Erdogan in the May election. He now faces a possible prison sentence and political ban if convicted.
As Erdogan tightens his grip, the disparate opposition has erupted amid post-election infighting. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who lost to Erdogan in May, is resisting calls to resign as head of the opposition Republican People's Party. Frustration is growing among opposition supporters about the prospects of reversing Turkey's slide toward authoritarianism.
Fraud, violations of civil liberties and abuse of state and media resources had made the regime authoritarian, but this did not affect the outcome of the elections. However, Erdogan's recent steps and the disarray of the opposition are moving away from this principle. Now only Turkey's economic problems stand in the way of Erdogan's efforts to consolidate his autocracy.
His unorthodox policies have sent the economy into a downward spiral. But instead of much-needed structural reforms, he is looking for a quick fix. To signal a change in course, he appointed Mehmet Simsek, a market-friendly former finance minister, to lead the economy. To some extent, Erdogan's moves seem to be paying off. Foreign investors are returning and the World Bank plans to double its exposure to Turkey to $35 billion, which includes direct lending to the government. These funds are throwing Erdogan a lifeline without meaningful reforms in return.
Those who care about democracy in Turkey should not be fooled by Erdogan's tactical moves. What may seem like moderation is actually the final stage in the consolidation of his rule. As the Turkish republic approaches its centenary next month, it is at a critical point in its winding journey to Western democracy. It would be a sad irony to see the West complicit in securing its autocracy./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Financial Times"
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