FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
When the war in Ukraine finally ends, the result could be a tense peace that will offer as many lessons for Western countries as the conflict itself...
As we approach the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a harsh winter has gripped the country. I recently visited Ukraine during one of the harshest weather conditions in five years, with temperatures dipping below minus 24 degrees Celsius. Ukrainian soldiers are spending up to 40 days in front-line positions without heating, while hundreds of thousands of citizens have been forced to cope with power outages.
The widespread drone cover, where almost anything that moves on the battlefield, be it soldiers or vehicles, is detected and destroyed, has meant that Russian advances have remained minimal. Russia has taken less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory by 2025. Its slow, steady offensive is carried out mainly by small infiltration units moving on foot or on motorbikes through the forests. For those who do try to advance, the odds of being killed by drones are about one in three.
Yet Russian forces continue to push forward, straining Ukraine’s manpower, resources, and will, even as Ukrainian officials estimate that they are killing or seriously wounding 30,000 to 35,000 Russian soldiers each month. The Russian state’s tolerance of these losses undermines Ukrainian support for the strategy of attrition as a sustainable approach. There does not appear to be a clear breaking point, a threshold at which Russia will concede defeat.
Russia is also adapting to the new era of warfare. Tactics developed by Russia’s elite drone unit, Rubicon, are spreading to the front lines, particularly the use of fiber-optic drones that are immune to electronic jamming and can strike soldiers in trenches or tunnels even through forests and in difficult weather conditions. Russia has begun developing jet-powered Shahed drones, which are faster and harder to intercept, and aims to increase their use to over 1,000 per day by 2026 to hit Ukraine continuously.
To counter this, Ukraine is building the systems needed to stay ahead of the curve, through intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) drones, a vast network of radars, and artificial intelligence systems to collect, integrate, and analyze data on battlefield events and incoming threats. I have long been an investor in defense technology companies, including in Ukraine.
This infrastructure means Ukraine is ready for the next phase of the war, with swarms of remotely operated and increasingly automated drones with targeting through artificial intelligence. The neutral zone has expanded, as each side has pulled its most valuable personnel from the front, while new generations of drones achieve longer ranges and greater striking power through improved batteries, sensors and aerodynamics. Automating operations so that personnel can operate safely behind the front line has become an urgent priority for Ukraine, with plans to move drone pilots even further away from the front by 2026.
The wars of the future will be defined by unmanned weapons. The combination of unstoppable satellite communications, free-spectrum networks, and precise targeting via GPS means that the only way to fight will be through drone-on-drone engagements. Drones share data in real time, meaning multiple, inexpensive platforms can act as a single weapon. They will carry air-to-air missiles to defeat attackers, just like fighter jets, but they will be cheaper and more numerous.
The winner of these drone battles will then be able to advance with unmanned ground and sea vehicles, which move slowly but can carry heavier loads. These air, land, and sea formations will absorb the initial fire and expand the killing zone that is becoming increasingly robotic. Only after the first waves of machines have entered will human soldiers follow.
When the war in Ukraine finally ends, the result could be a tense peace that will offer as many lessons for Western countries as the conflict itself. In the future, a “drone wall” could be created along the dividing line between Russia and Ukraine, where automated, ubiquitous drones will monitor the border like a smart electric fence. Since these drones will be valuable targets for the enemy, they will need to be armed to repel attacks, creating a strong border that extends over considerable height and width.
Meanwhile, ballistic and cruise missiles, capable of extreme precision at much higher speeds than drones and incredibly difficult to shoot down, will likely be deployed in the thousands by each side, maintaining a blocking balance.
As Western leaders gather at the Munich Security Conference to discuss the defense of Europe and the wider world, they must admit that they are not yet prepared for this new era of warfare. Ukraine shows that a conflict characterized by ubiquitous autonomous weapons will rapidly consume current stockpiles of drones and ammunition. However, the West’s current capacity to scale up production in times of war remains inadequate.
Mastery of autonomous systems and the ability to produce these weapons in large quantities will determine the outcome of future wars. The West must learn from what is happening on the front lines in Ukraine, accelerate innovation, and build the industrial base necessary to produce at the scale and speed that the next conflict will require./ Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "FinancialTimes"
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