
A growing number of people in Western countries believe the world is heading towards a global war, according to a Politico poll that reveals growing public concern about the risks and costs of a new conflict.
The survey was conducted in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Germany between February 6 and 9, with more than 2,000 respondents from each of the five countries.
Majorities of respondents in the US, Canada, the UK and France believe that the outbreak of World War III is likely or very likely within the next five years. Only Germany stands out as a country where citizens no longer believe that a global war will occur in that period.
In the US, 46 percent believe that a new global military confrontation is possible by 2031, which is an increase compared to last year (38 percent).
In the UK, 43 percent of respondents see World War III as possible or very likely, up from 30 percent in March 2025.
The survey also shows that many believe in the possibility of using nuclear weapons in such a conflict, and a large number of respondents believe that a future war would lead to greater human losses than World War II.
Although there are signs that the public wants more defense spending, support only increases until concrete consequences are considered, such as rising national debt, cuts to other services, or tax increases - then this support drops sharply.
The results of this survey highlight the challenge facing NATO and European leaders as they strive to strengthen security at a time when public finances are tight and the sense of global threat is growing.
When it comes to individual countries that might take military action, respondents from the US are most likely to believe that their country will be at war in the next five years, followed by respondents from the UK and France.
This suggests that NATO nuclear powers may be more likely to expect conflict than other countries, and that Trump's image as a "peace president" is not convincing to voters at home.
At least one in three people in the US, UK, France and Canada think the use of nuclear weapons is likely or very likely in war within the next five years.
Russia is seen as the biggest threat to peace in Europe, while Canadians see Trump's America as the biggest threat to security. In France, Germany and the UK, the second biggest threat is seen in the US, which respondents mentioned much more often than China.
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