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The Czech Republic voted today, October 4, on the final day of parliamentary elections that are expected to return populist billionaire Andrej Babiš to power.
Babiš has promised wage increases, support for economic growth and a more limited approach to aid for Ukraine, challenging the current cabinet of Prime Minister Petr Fiala.
This change could empower populist and anti-immigrant policies in Europe and strengthen opposition to the objectives of the European Union.
Economic consequences and government policies Fiala
Czechs experienced a spike in inflation following the global pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and recovery from the decline in real incomes has been slow.
Numerous corruption scandals weakened the Spolu coalition of Prime Minister Fiala and his liberal allies, who had a gradual focus on reducing the budget deficit.
Babis and ties with Europe
Babiš's party, ANO, has been leading the polls with over 30% support and is an ally of Hungarian nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in the "Patriots for Europe" group in the European Parliament.
Babiš, previously prime minister from 2017-2021, has a tough stance on aid to Ukraine, departing from the active policy of the Fiala government, which has consistently supported Kiev.
Under Fiala's leadership, he launched the "Czech Initiative" to provide millions of artillery shells to Ukraine, with funding from Western countries.
Babiš, 71, has vowed to stop the project, saying it is expensive. ANO wants aid for Ukraine to be managed by NATO and the EU, and has abstained in several votes in the European Parliament supporting Kiev and its EU membership, which Babiš has publicly opposed in the past.
Coalitions and challenges for the majority
Polls show that ANO could win over 30% of the vote, 10 points more than the Spolu coalition, but still far from an absolute majority. To form his preferred one-party cabinet, Babiš may need the support of radical anti-EU and anti-NATO parties, such as the SPD (far right) and Stacilo (far left).
Babis faces conflict of interest laws as the owner of a chemical and food “empire,” as well as old fraud charges related to an EU subsidy from 15 years ago, which he denies. If several smaller parties fail to reach the 5% threshold to enter parliament, it could favor the ruling parties.
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