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The conflict with Iran is expected to shake global markets and push up oil and energy prices.
The World Bank is warning of a significant increase in energy prices this year, calling it the biggest increase in four years. According to its latest “Commodity Markets Outlook” report, energy prices are expected to increase by about 24 percent, reaching their highest levels since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The report directly links this development to the escalation of the conflict with Iran, which has caused shockwaves in global commodity markets, particularly in the energy sector. In addition to energy, the World Bank forecasts that overall commodity prices will rise by 16 percent in 2026, driven by rising energy and fertilizer prices and record highs in some key metals.
In this context, the price of Brent oil is expected to average $86 per barrel in 2026, compared to $69 in 2025. This scenario is based on the assumption that the most severe supply disruptions will ease by May and that maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually return to pre-conflict levels by the end of 2026.
However, the situation remains fragile. Attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 35 percent of global seaborne oil trade passes, have caused an unprecedented blow to global supply. According to the report, in the initial phase this reduced supply by about 10 million barrels per day, one of the largest disruptions ever recorded.
This development increases uncertainty in energy markets and could have direct consequences for the global economy, adding pressure on inflation and production costs in many countries./ Pamphlet
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