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The Euro is regaining ground in the exchange rate with the Lek. According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged on Wednesday at 102.22 ALL, an increase of 1.15 ALL compared to yesterday.
After touching the historical minimum of 101.09 ALL last Wednesday, the European currency has partially recovered, starting from Thursday, when the Bank of Albania held the next auction for the purchase of Euros.
Thursday's auction was part of the annual calendar of purchases for foreign reserve needs. But, according to sources from the market, the Bank of Albania continued its purchases on Friday as well, in the form of semi-direct intervention to stabilize the foreign exchange rate. A similar practice was followed last month.
Sources from the market state that, however, the purchases of the Bank of Albania have not been very large and they are not the determining factor in the return of the exchange rate trend in the last days.
This week, some of the commercial banks, mainly Banka Kombëtare Tregtare, OTP Albania and Credins Bank have made purchases of foreign currency, probably to meet the demands of their customers. Experts hypothesize that many entities may have waited for the Euro to fall near the level of 100 lek in order to make purchases for their needs.
As such, this has greatly increased demand over the past few days, outstripping the seasonally high supply of the currency. Such behavior can explain a somewhat paradoxical performance of the exchange rate, which is rising precisely in the last days of July, when in previous years the seasonal decline reached its peak.
It is not the first time this year that the Euro alternates periods of strong decline, with rapid but short-term recoveries, which, according to agents, are mainly explained by the opportunistic behavior of subjects who want to buy the Euro at times when the value of the European currency falls, consequently increased demand.
However, this course dynamics does not exclude possible speculative behavior in the short term, especially by actors who have great market power.
The growth of the Euro in the last few days has also partially raised the exchange rate of other major currencies. The American dollar was exchanged today at 92.35 ALL and has increased by 2.41 ALL compared to a week ago. The British pound was exchanged on Wednesday at 119.12 Lek, increasing by 3.4 Lek compared to the historical minimum reached last Thursday.
At the moment, the strong growth of the local currency appears to be in a correction phase.
However, market fundamentals seem likely to continue to support the strong Lek in the short term. Statistics showed that the number of tourists for the first half of this year reached a record level and tourism flows will continue to remain high, at least until the end of the summer season.
On an annual basis, the Euro-Lek exchange rate remains in double-digit decline, with 12.3% compared to the same period a year ago./Monitor
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