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Forum2024-07-04 12:13:00

Can Aleksandar Vucic cross the "Rubicon"?

Shkruar nga Fadil Lepaja
Can Aleksandar Vucic cross the "Rubicon"?
Aleksander Vucic /

Order to the "Supreme Commander"

North Kosovo had dawned covered with posters, with an unusual invitation in the Serbian language: "Supreme Commander, we are waiting for you". 

Can Aleksandar Vucic cross the "Rubicon"?

In most of the Albanian media, the message was incorrectly translated, as if they were addressing their "commander" in the plural. In fact, it was, "waiting for you". It was an invitation or an order, addressed to a subordinate or a superior, it is hard to say.

Whatever it was, it shows a group of people who don't pay attention to the label, but to the message.

Who is this message addressed to?

The President of Serbia, the institutions of Kosovo or NATO? Was it a real invitation or media provocation?

In any case, the Minister of Internal Affairs of Kosovo, Xelal Sveçla, saw fit to warn the Serbian President or anyone who distributed this message that the President of Serbia will be arrested if he answers the summons and enters the territory of Kosovo, without permission from the Foreign Ministry of Kosovo.

President Vučić's statement/response was also dramatic and does not clarify anything. Neither did he say, don't wait in vain, nor was he told that he was coming. Typical for the President who sleeps on two chairs, between east and west.

Now, for months there has been talk of a possible scenario of the introduction of Serbian armed groups into Kosovo, which have been declared to have carried out military/combat training together with the Serbian security forces, with Serbian or foreign instructors. The call comes from inside Kosovo, which suggests that they are already inside. The Serbian President's dramatic statement on the readiness and movements of KFOR, Bajraktar, Albanian and Kosovar drones, seems to be a response to this call. Can't the Serbian president cross the "Rubicon"?

Why now, would probably be the main question. Are they already moving or are global conjuncture movements expected?

The warnings, and especially the Serbian predictions that Trump will win the US elections, reopen the issue of borders in the Balkans. The serial activation of Trump's people and all pro/Serbian and not only Serbian forces in the region, towards the Albanian factor, shows that the temperature is rising deliberately and in a synchronized manner.

What seems more believable in all this tollovi is that these slogans were thrown precisely as a provocation against the Serbian president who is making a supernatural effort to be held as the leader of all Serbs, and thus also of Serbia. The very process of dialogue with Kosovo, the developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina around the Serbian entity there and the return of a pro-Russian government in North Macedonia, are shocking and confusing Serbian opinion.

The ecclesiastical, academic and financial elites, regarding an orientation of Serbian politics for the future, find it difficult to position themselves in a situation when pressure from both sides is forcing them to play all or nothing.

Given that only Moscow and Trump's eventual victory in the elections offer "completely", supporters of this idea seem to have activated to force the Serbian president to take their side, since he is still trying to hold on to two seats.

If it does not cooperate with the West, the process of further disintegration, not only of the Serbian world but also of Serbia itself, will continue and the demilitarization of Serbia becomes a necessity.

Only in these circumstances would the Serbian elites be oriented towards the United Europe.

But why do they invite the President "of all Serbs" where he knows he cannot go? If the Serbian president is forced to go to Kosovo, even for tourism in Kopaonik, this would provoke reactions that he cannot control, risking to ignite the conflict in the Balkans, anyway with military intervention of Serbia in the north of Kosovo and consequently NATO in Serbia. Any further speculation would be frivolous.

Can Vucic cross the "Rubicon"?

Not without giving up one chair. The downside for him is that whatever seat he gives up, Vucic is no longer needed in Serbian politics. He is aware of his position and his (im)power.

So, what game is the Serbian president playing? Until he encountered Kurti's "reciprocity", President Vučić kept himself updated by creating crises. It brought the situation to the edge of the abyss. Now, the roles have changed, the crises are being created by the Kosovar Prime Minister. How do I get the initiative back? Will Vucic risk a war in an attempt to create an even greater threat in the North?

It's hard to say. Serbian opinion for the first time seems to be seriously feeling the possibility of losing everything. He feels the danger of the further disintegration of Serbia and the possibility that other parts such as Vojvodina, Sangjak, Preševo ​​Valley and other fragments that make up almost half of the territory of Serbia will be separated from it.

Bearing in mind that the normalization of relations with Kosovo has given rise to the idea that even with Vojvodina, which was also an Autonomous Socialist Province, relations should be "normalized", then one must understand the idea that any secession of Vojvodina would be made and recognized within its borders administrative year 1974. For Serbia this would have only one difference, while Kosovo has its north, Vojvodina would have its Serbian south. NATO would be established there and ... Even a Serbian republic would be added to the "Serbian World"./ Pamphlet

aleksandër vuçiç rubikoni

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