FLASH
Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
The SP would have received at least 8 fewer mandates than it did, if the opposition (old and new) had not made two tactical electoral mistakes...
Now that the vote recount has been completed in the country's two largest districts (where almost 40% of the parliamentary mandates were determined), an analysis can be made of the effects of the two tactical mistakes of the opposition (old and new), which were discussed at length before the May 11 elections.
Mistake 1 (of the old opposition)
While the SP filled the open lists of candidates with well-known and experienced MPs and politicians, the DP placed its candidates on closed lists, where the vast majority had a statistically secure mandate, regardless of how the race went in their respective districts. For this reason, they had no concrete personal incentive to collect personal votes in the district. Meanwhile, their socialist colleagues were all out in the field, collecting personal votes (which were grist for the SP’s common mill).
Mistake 2 (of the new opposition)
In addition to the SP, PSD and DP-ASHM, eight new electoral entities entered the elections this time, which were in fierce competition with both the old entities and each other. And it was precisely the competition between them that damaged them in quite a few districts. If they had entered the elections with joint lists in each district, with candidates from closed lists who would publicly announce their resignation just before the elections and with the main candidates on open lists, they would have secured more mandates than they did when they were divided.
The effect of the opposition's (old and new) tactical mistakes
To analyze the effect of these two tactical errors of the opposition (old and new), I built a statistical simulation model with the official votes of each region. From 1000 simulations of this statistical model, it resulted that the SP would have received at least 8 mandates less than it did, if the opposition (old and new) had not made the two above-mentioned electoral tactical errors. From these 8 mandates, the new opposition would have mainly benefited.
NOTE: The 3 PSD mandates remained unchanged in each simulation of the statistical model.
Lini një Përgjigje