FLASH
Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
Detailed data from INSTAT and the CEC by region allow us to calculate the numbers for each region, where Tirana, Fier, Elbasan and Durrës are the four regions with the largest number of voters who have the concrete opportunity to vote...
Almost 3.73 million Albanian citizens have the right to vote in the May 11 elections (according to the preliminary voter list published by the CEC). But over 1.55 million of them have not registered to vote by mail from abroad, thus not creating the opportunity for themselves to exercise their constitutional right as Albanian citizens of voting age.
On the other hand, around 1.93 million voters reside in Albania (population 18 years and over according to INSTAT). And they have the concrete opportunity to vote on May 11 – they just have to go to their respective polling stations and cast their vote for whoever they prefer. Around 246 thousand voters in emigration (13.6% of the total in emigration), who are registered with the CEC to vote by mail, also have the concrete opportunity to vote.
For comparison, in the 2013 elections (when the highest voter turnout of the new millennium was achieved), there were about 3.27 million citizens of voting age on the voter list, of whom about 2 million resided in Albania (of whom, about 1.75 million voted).
And how are the approximately 2.18 million voters who have the concrete opportunity to vote on May 11 distributed by districts?
Detailed data from INSTAT and the CEC by region allow us to calculate the numbers for each region, with Tirana, Fier, Elbasan and Durrës being the four regions with the largest number of voters who have the concrete opportunity to vote (see Table 1 below).
How many of the voters who have the concrete opportunity to vote are expected to vote in the May 11 elections?
In the last parliamentary elections, about 1.66 million local voters voted (the borders were closed due to Covid-19 for voters from abroad). Meanwhile, according to INSTAT, about 1.97 million voters lived here at the time. That is, about 84% of local voters voted.
Currently, a nationwide survey conducted by MRB Hellas & DataCentrum found that 82.9% of respondents here were certain that they would vote on May 11. If we apply this national percentage to local voters according to the distribution of participation across districts in 2021, it turns out that about 1.6 million local voters can vote on May 11. While assuming that the percentage of mail-in votes from registered emigrants for elections can reach up to 90%, it turns out that about 220 thousand votes will be from emigration.
But it should be borne in mind that the MRB Hellas & DataCentrum survey had (like any survey) a margin of statistical error. So, the real number of participants may fluctuate around the above figure. It should also be borne in mind that quite a few voters will be confused by the complicated ballot papers, such as newspaper sheets, and thus many of their votes may turn out to be invalid (5% turned out to be invalid in the last parliamentary elections).
In summary, the total valid votes could be somewhere around 1.75 million (see Table 2 below).
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