FLASH
Shkruar nga Sadri Ramabaja
The real political battle is between two Macedonian political blocs: the one that claims to maintain the status quo [LSDM] and the bloc for radical change [VMRO DPPMNE]. In the middle are the Albanians, but with a specific weight that determines the course of the history of North Macedonia as a Republic...
Moscow, having reached an unassailable position in the war, seems to have made it known that it is not interested in a total war, namely in the complete occupation of Ukraine, as was its original objective.
Russian strategists seem to have agreed to postpone this phase of the war for the next decade or for a more convenient geopolitical momentum. Meanwhile, the Europeans have read this fact more realistically and are showing signs that, as they did after the Second World War, in the following decades it must coexist with Russia. Otherwise, the total war would involve all of Europe, starting from the Balkans with a high probability of then involving all of Europe.
In this context of geopolitical developments, it is clear why Germany seeks to maintain the importance and financial stability of NATO, even through the continuation of the war in Ukraine. That's why German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after a meeting with Biden at the White House in Washington on February 9, said: "Let's not beat around the bush: support from the United States is indispensable if Ukraine will be able to defend itself." Meanwhile, if we want to prevent the spread of the flames of war in Europe, he is clear that military aid to Ukraine must be strongly increased, thus sending a "very clear signal" to Putin.
Meanwhile, while all the attention of political analysts and military strategists has been focused on preventing the extension of this agenda in the Western Balkans, mainly in Bosnia and Kosovo, Serbia had continued with the realization of the "Serbian World" with the means of hybrid war, which are ahead the real war in Montenegro and recently also in North Macedonia.
In Montenegro, through the Church, de facto, it has achieved its objective, making a kind of soft invasion of "Serbian Sparta" a fact. Now Belgrade has also dropped its anchors in North Macedonia and has become a party to the elections that are expected to be held on May 8. But, since in North Macedonia, the Macedonian Church, as much as it is a vassal of the Serbian one, cannot guarantee the victory of the pro-Serb Macedonian bloc [LSDM], without the support of the Albanian political bloc.
Parliamentary elections in North Macedonia will be held on May 8, 2024, along with the second round of presidential elections. The first round for the election of the country's president will take place on April 24. They will be the test investment of the winner of the election on May 8.
In the race between the Macedonian political bloc, polls continue to show VMRO DPPMNE as the winner. Its rhetoric is very anti-Albanian, despite the fact that it appears to be only anti-DUI. Its leadership is now the second echelon that succeeded its former leader Gruevski, who is in political exile in Hungary.
The political battle within the Albanian political camp, in appearance, looks like an extraordinary gift for VMRO DPPMNE. Whether it will turn out like this remains to be seen on May 9. But what can be concluded now is the fact that North Macedonia is entering the stage of internal political redefinition. At this stage of political developments, North Macedonia will soon be faced with an alternative: either it goes towards federalization - the internal self-determination of the Albanians through the creation of the Republic of Illyria, agreeing with Skopje as the common capital, more or less according to the model Belg, or towards its complete reconfiguration and separation.
The political battle is therefore between two Macedonian blocs: the one that claims to preserve the status quo [LSDM] and the bloc for radical change [VMRO DPPMNE]. In the middle are the Albanians, but with a specific weight that determines the course of the history of North Macedonia as a Republic.
In case the Macedonian forces are determined for the survival of the Republic, this time they must take into consideration with the greatest possible seriousness the Albanian vital interest. Macedonia therefore floats and survives as a Republic or drowns depending on the political reflection in relation to Albanian interests.
See for this, the May 8 elections now have the burdens of regional geopolitics. They should already be seen beyond the shaky internal politics and despair in these two communities - Macedonian and Albanian, it speaks of new explosive tensions, where relations between states are being reshaped./ Pamphlet
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