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The Champions League formula changes with more matches and a completely new qualifying phase, but the favorites are still the same. According to "Opta", the computer that analyzes thousands of data about teams and players, the final victory will be played by the two teams that have dominated the last editions: Manchester City and Real Madrid with Inter as the third wheel. According to "Opta Predictor" - the program that takes into account historical streaks, precedents, statistics of attack and defense of teams - the English eleven managed by Pep Guardiola has a chance of 25.3 out of 100 to win the Champions League.
Percentage that increases to 39.9% for qualification to the final and 55% for qualification to the semi-final. Carlo Ancelotti's team stops, so to speak, at just 18.2% probability of bringing the Cup to Madrid for the second year in a row. Inter, the finalist two years ago and defeated by Siti, is the third team with double digits: Zikaltëri have a 10.9% chance of winning.
There is a huge gap to Arsenal who have only 6.4 out of a hundred. Then there are Bayer Leverkusen (5.4%), Barcelona (5.1%), Liverpool (4.2%), Bayern Munich (4.1%) and PSG (4.1%). The Parisians also pay the iron group in which they entered to qualify for the final stage (City, Atlético, PSV, Girona, Bayern, Arsenal, Salzburg, Stuttgart).
The predominance of English clubs (there are three) in the first positions with Spain and Germany following with two teams each. However, the Germans can also hope in Borussia Dortmund, last year's finalists, who are rated with a 2.4% chance of final victory, the same as Leipzig.
According to "Opta", the Italians, with the exception of Inter, do not have many chances. The second most accredited team is Giampiero Gasperini's Atalanta who won the Europa League last year: with a 1.7% probability they are 14th in this unique ranking. However, the players of the team from Bergamo should easily qualify for the round of 16. Further back are Juventus, Milan and Bologna: the Bolognese have only 55.4% chance to pass at least the first stage.
Italian teams:
Inter - 10.9% chance to win the Champions League. In the final: 21.2%. In the semi-finals: 36.7%. In the quarterfinals: 58.6%
Atalanta – 1.7% chance to win the Champions League. In the final: 4.5%. In the semi-finals: 12.1%. In the quarterfinals: 28.8%
Juventus – 1.1% chance to win the Champions League. In the final: 2.9%. In the semi-finals: 8%. In the quarterfinals: 21.7%
Milan – 0.4% chance to win the Champions League. In the final: 1.4%. In the semi-finals: 5.2%. In the quarterfinals: 16.6%
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