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Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
Analysts at OPTAS, the world's largest football statistics company, predict (based on their sophisticated statistical models) that PSG have only a 36.2% probability of qualifying within 90 minutes against Dortmund (ie a win in 90 minutes with at least 2 goals lead).
While the probability of passing the round (after possible extras and penalties) is, according to them, only 48% (see Table 1). For Real, OPTA analysts predict a 52.6% probability of qualification in 90 minutes and a full 67.5% of passing the tour (after possible extras and penalties).
By combing through the OPTA analysts' probabilities, I constructed the following table of possible final pairing probabilities. Thus, the most likely pair is Real-Dortmund, with a probability of 35.1%.
The second result is Real-PSG, with a probability of 32.4%, and the third result is the German couple, Bayern-Dortumnd, with a probability of 16.9%, which, if it materializes, will be repeated in the London "Wembley" stadium in the 2013 final (which it won Bayern 2-1). While a repeat of the 2020 Bayern-PSG final (which Bayern won 1-0) has only a 15.6% probability.
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