FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
At a time when the five-day ceasefire in the Middle East is not being implemented and Tehran officially denies the possibility of direct negotiations with Washington, the behind-the-scenes of the conflict speaks of a different reality. According to security expert Ilir Kulla, what is happening is not an attempt at peace, but a maneuver to buy time before the next phase of the war.
Speaking on the show "Të Pashoq" on the "Pamphlet" YouTube channel about the situation, Kulla explained that there are currently no real negotiations, but an attempt to create an "intermediary mechanism". According to him, this mechanism, which is being mediated by third parties such as Turkey and Pakistan, aims to establish a temporary one-month ceasefire through a 15-point plan. However, he added, the ultimate goal is not peace.
According to the expert, this tactical "breathing" has two main objectives. First, to reduce tensions in world markets, as the conflict has proven that "Iran's most powerful weapon" is the ability to cause chaos in commodity prices. Second, to temporarily stop Iranian missile attacks, especially against Israel, where the "Iron Dome" defense system has proven ineffective.
Kulla emphasizes that the war will not stop, but will continue. According to him, the US and Israel cannot withdraw from a conflict without securing some military "records" that would allow them to declare a form of victory. The expert also warned about the advanced military capabilities of Iran, which has developed missile programs that can reach any part of Europe and beyond. This, combined with the global economic consequences that affect not only oil and gas, but also the security of maritime transport and supply chains, makes the situation even more complicated.
Excerpt from the interview:
-We have talked here about the war, we have predicted its fate, its progress and so on. It has been three days since the five-day ceasefire was announced. It is not being respected. On the other hand, Iran denies the possibility of negotiations that Trump announced three days ago, if I am not mistaken. What is really happening behind the scenes?
Ilir Kulla : In fact, there are no negotiations. There is a delay after a deadline that President Trump set of 48 hours and the moment he saw that it was not. That thing was disrespectful and then this attempt to talk to third parties was made public. In the specific case, Pakistan and Turkey, which are two neighbors of Iran, but also two countries with very good relations with the US. Where according to which, an intermediate mechanism is being sought, eh, not negotiations, but let's say 15 points to reach a ceasefire somewhere in a month. Which means, on the one hand, an attempt to eh, to try to reduce the madness of raw material prices on the stock exchanges, since this war proved that Iran's strongest weapon was the issue of raw materials. Yes. And on the other hand, for him to try to stop what you just said, namely the continuation of Iranian missiles over the entire middle line, but above all in Israel. After what he has left behind, was also seen in the war of last year for two weeks, but especially in this month, that the Iron Dome does not work in Israel and this has severely hit the credibility within Israel that normal life can continue. And the responsibility for the security of countries from Saudi Arabia to Israel, from the Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea, has been held all these years in the name of a strategic alliance, namely the USA and its military power. So we need a moment of breathing, but it is an intermediate moment of breathing between what is the first phase of the war and what will be the continuation. So I do not see that there is an interruption of the war, I do not see that negotiations will work or that there will be real negotiations, I see the continuation of the war. Because, if we look carefully at the fact that the Americans, together with the Israelis, have been talking for days about troop relocation, we understand that, both Israel and the US cannot stop a war from which they do not, at least not, should not have some records to say that we won something.
Nëse lufta do të ndërprehej, do të ndërpritej ditën e dytë me vrasjen e Khamenei-t dhe të disa drejtuesve të regjimit në në Iran, atëherë do të mund të flitej për rekorde pozitive të një të një sulmi luftarak të izraelito-amerikan mbi Iran, por pas një muaji luftë, duhet të flasim për disa rekorde ushtarake të cilat shqetësojnë jo vetëm stabilitetin e gjithë Lindjes së Mesme, por edhe më gjerë. Pasi pamë, vërtetuam atë që kemi thënë këtu në këtë studio tre javë më përpara, që Irani ka zhvilluar programe raketore të niveleve të larta, të cilët nuk e kanë problem të mbërrijnë në çdo pjesë të Evropës, po ndoshta edhe më gjatë me me raketa ndërkontinentale. Pasi ato armë që Irani kishte përdorur në fillimin e këtij konflikti ishin armë të prodhuara shumë vite më përpara dhe të magazinuara, të depozituara. Qofshin këto dronë, qofshin këto sisteme raketore. E ndërthurur kjo me situatën ekonomike globale të lëndëve të para, dhe me lëndë të para këtu nuk nënkuptoj vetëm gazin dhe naftën, por nënkuptoj edhe çështjen e sigurisë së transportit ndërkombëtar, pra, të drithërave dhe gjithçka tjetër që ka të bëjë me transportin detar ndër oqeanik, me sigurinë e ngushticave të rëndësishme siç është ajo e Hormuzit apo siç është ngushtica që del nga deti i Kuq në Oqeanin Indian, që në një anë janë Huthët, në anën tjetër është Somalia, Sudani, ë, Xhibuti e të tjerë. Jemi përballë komplikimit me efekte të një lufte e cila po i ka filluar që në muajin e parë të japë efekte të nivelit global. Ndaj, situata është ende me shumë të panjohura. Ë, duket qartë që konflikti i cili filloi vetëm si goditje ndaj Tehranit dhe dy qyteteve, disa objektive, është zhvendosur dhe është zgjeruar në gjithë rajonin, pra nga deti Mesdhe, po të fusim Qipron, futet edhe Bashkimi Europian, e deri në fqinjët e Iranit siç është Afganistani, Pakistani që do të përfshihet në në negociata.
Military balances show that the conflict has been deepening more and more. There are over 8,000 targets hit by the US and Israel in Iranian territory, which is a very large territory, as we have said, with many mountains and very difficult. But on the other hand, this has not made it possible for Iran to stop its strikes in the entire Gulf, it has blocked all the Gulf countries, namely the Sunni countries, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait which was hit last night. All of Iraq, Jordan was hit last night. And, the war has started, the war in Lebanon between Hezbollah and the Israeli army has resumed. Over 50,000 Israeli residents have been displaced to the south of Israel, they have fled from the area of 30 kilometers in the north on the border with Lebanon. Israel is trying to take control of the entire area up to the Litani River by mining even the bridges that connect Lebanon with its southern part, that is, under the Litani River. Not to mention the attack and the war that is also taking place in the south of the city of Beirut and all the other economic effects of this war, which is costing about 1 billion per day on the Israel-US side and about another 1 billion on the Iranian side.
Ky koqja hiqet si experti qe e di te gjithe situaten ne bote.