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Rajoni dhe Bota2024-12-30 08:41:00

Can Ukraine withstand another year of war?

Shkruar nga Pamfleti

Can Ukraine withstand another year of war?

Ukraine is losing the battle on the ground. Many of its soldiers are tired and exhausted after three years of fighting. The question – can the country endure another year of war?

Ukrainian forces are still resisting Russian advances in the east. But they are almost surrounded near the town of Kurakhevo – the scene of some of the most intense fighting in recent weeks.

The Black Pack, a mortar unit, is trying to prevent their encirclement around the Kurakhs. The Russians are approaching from three sides.

Surt, their 31-year-old commander, joined the army shortly after the full-scale invasion of Russia. He tells me that at first he thought the war would last three years. Now, he says, he is mentally preparing himself for another ten years of fighting.

They all know that Donald Trump wants to end the war. Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia's president have also indicated they are open to talks, but the idea of ​​a workable deal seems hard to imagine. So far there is only talk of talks.

Surt does not dismiss Trump's intent.

"He is quite an ambitious person and I think he will try to do it," he says. But he worries about the outcome of any negotiation.

"We are realistic, we understand that there will be no justice for Ukraine - many will have to swallow the fact that their homes have been destroyed by rockets and shells, that their loved ones have been killed, and that will be difficult."

When asked if he would prefer to negotiate or continue to fight - Surt answers emphatically: "Keep fighting."

It is a view reflected by most of the unit. Serhiy, the chef, believes that the negotiations would simply freeze the war temporarily - "and the conflict will return in a year or two".

He admits that the current situation is not good for Ukraine. But he too is ready to continue the fight. Getting killed, he says, "is just an occupational hazard."
Davyd, an artist and soldier, thinks Trump is unpredictable. "He can be either very good or very bad for Ukraine," he says.

The unit spends one week at the front and the next week resting. But even when they rest, they continue to train because, they say, it keeps them motivated. The team has recently been joined by Denys, who voluntarily left Germany.

"I asked myself the question - can I live in a world where Ukraine does not exist?" he says. He reluctantly admits that he now seems to be losing, but adds: “If you don't try, then you will surely lose. At least I'll die trying to win instead of just lying down."

But, unlike others, Denys says he thinks Ukraine should at least consider a ceasefire. He believes that Ukraine's casualties are higher than what is officially acknowledged – more than 400,000 killed and wounded. Mobilizing more of the population, he believes, would not solve the problem.

"I just think that a lot of the motivated soldiers are either lost or they're very exhausted — and so to me it's not that we want a ceasefire, but we can't go on for many more years," he says.
Dnipro, Ukraine's third largest city, also reflects this sense of war weariness. It is regularly targeted by Russian missiles and drones. Air raid sirens sound day and night. When they are silent, Ukrainians try to find some sense of normalcy in these abnormal times – including by going to the theater.

In a comedy show called Kaidash Family, there are still memories of the war – a minute's silence to remember the fallen, followed by the Ukrainian national anthem.

But some in the audience admit they're also hoping for a longer release. Ludmyla tells me "unfortunately there are fewer of us. We are getting help, but it is not enough – so we have to sit down and negotiate.”

Kseniia says: “There is no easy answer. Many of our soldiers have been killed. They fought for something - for our territories. But I want the war to end."

Opinion polls also suggest there is growing support for negotiations.
Some of the loudest calls for a ceasefire come from those who have been forced to flee the fighting. In a shelter near the theater, in the former student housing, a group of four elderly women remember the homes they left behind.

87-year-old Valentyna: "It's good to be a guest, but it's better to be at home."

Her home is now in the territory occupied by Russia. All four women want peace negotiations. But Mariia, 89, says she does not know how either side will be able to "look each other in the eye after the great hell they have committed".

"It is already clear that nobody will win militarily, so we need negotiations."

If there are negotiations, these women may end up having to sacrifice the most – as Ukraine may have to sacrifice land for peace.

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