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The question everyone is asking about the war in Ukraine is, can Kiev really win this war and regain the territory it has lost?
The most suitable person to answer this question is President Zelenskyy. He knows the resources available to Ukraine, the relative strengths of Russian and Ukrainian forces, and it is his country and population who are fighting and paying a high price for this war of national survival.
However, Ukraine knows that it cannot defeat Russia alone. Russia has significantly greater resources at its disposal and is already steadily transforming its defense industrial base to support a long-term war.
Russia is also seeking to draw Ukraine into a war of attrition - where the larger army will ultimately prevail. And although Russia has yet to secure all areas of Donbass, the rest of the front line looks relatively static, and with each passing day the Russians will strengthen their defenses and make any future Ukrainian attack more difficult.
In short, breaking a deadlock requires significant resources. Ukraine tried to push back Russian forces this summer with its long-awaited spring offensive, but despite having the military resources, training and finances, Ukraine has been unable to translate this international support into success on the battlefield.
So what does Ukraine need to enable a breakthrough?
Western weapons are key, but they are not in plentiful supply as war stocks have been depleted to support Ukraine over the past 20 months. And the West has multiple conflicting priorities for its limited resources.
Although the West was initially concerned about the wider threat to Europe posed by Russia, after 20 months of very heavy conflict, the Russian military machine has suffered significant damage and most estimates suggest it will take at least a decade to was rebuilt. So the West is now less concerned with the threat posed by Russia.
The conflict in Israel has also drawn global attention from Ukraine, which will not help President Zelenskyy's need to secure greater support.
So the front lines in the war seem somewhat static, and it seems increasingly unlikely that Ukraine will be able to liberate all of its lands - at least not in the near term.
Publicly, the West will remain committed to supporting Ukraine; however, with the US presidential election due later next year, any administration change could erode support for Ukraine, which would embolden Putin.
Despite President Zelenskyy's ambitions, it seems increasingly unlikely that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia will be won - by either side.
A negotiated settlement seems the most likely outcome at this stage, but I reiterate that this is entirely Ukraine's call, albeit a complicated one to navigate!/ SkyNews
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