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A new study by France's largest scientific think tank has identified significant gaps in Europe's defense capabilities against Russia. But solutions exist...
“European countries can no longer avoid the ‘Russian issue’ because Russia has chosen war.” That is the conclusion of a new study by a leading group of foreign policy experts in France. The study examines the balance of power between Russia and Europe. The researchers make it clear: Vladimir Putin is prevented from directly attacking Europe by only two factors. And if these factors are weakened, Europe currently lacks the ability to defend itself in a land war.
The study, titled “Europe-Russia: A Review of the Balance of Power,” was published on November 4 by the French Institute for International Relations (Ifri). The authors analyze the balance of power between Russia and Europe in four areas: economy, defense and security, political systems and social stability, and international alliances and structures. While all of these are important, they conclude that ultimately, political will and military defense and offensive capabilities are the decisive factors in a confrontation with Russia.
Two factors are preventing Putin from attacking Europe
According to Ifri, Russia has for years considered itself “the victim of a (fictional) war waged by the West to subjugate it.” Therefore, the war in Ukraine is a proxy war between the West and Russia. Moreover, Russia harbors imperial fantasies about its former spheres of influence. The study makes it clear that Russia “considers a military confrontation with NATO member states possible and intends to size and align its armed forces for this scenario.” The only things currently preventing Russia from militarily attacking Eastern and Central Europe are two things:
NATO’s internal cohesion: At the heart of this is the US commitment to European security, but also the European agreement on security values and interests.
Ukrainian resistance: The continued resistance of the Ukrainian people is binding Russian forces and preventing Russia from replenishing its weapons stockpiles or even opening a second front.
And if such aggression occurs, Europe currently lacks the military strength to win a ground war, according to the study. This means that the Russian military currently outnumbers the combined European forces. Russia is estimated to have between 650,000 and 950,000 soldiers at its disposal, compared with only 750,000 in Europe. The study’s authors include NATO and EU member states in this figure, excluding Turkey. In addition to the superior size of its military, Russia also has greater capabilities to rapidly mobilize its troops and deploy them to the front. In comparison, Europe is politically fragmented and has weaker infrastructure for troop movements, according to the Institute for Foreign Economic Research (IFRI).
Europe lacks weapons, infrastructure and soldiers
Moreover, 20 out of 30 European countries have small armies and cannot provide more than a few battalions (approximately 300 to 1,200 soldiers) for European defense. Therefore, according to Ifri, European defense would rest on the shoulders of perhaps six countries: Germany, France, Great Britain, Poland, Italy and Spain. In addition, Europe does not possess enough weapons. This applies to artillery, long-range and short-range weapons, as well as drones. Electronic warfare is also barely widespread in European armies.
Moreover, both Europe and Russia lack sufficient military infrastructure, such as medical equipment, transport and repair capabilities. Russia could compensate for this through exchange programs. Although numerically inferior, European armed forces are better trained and can thus somewhat fill the gap. However, this is hardly enough; the authors of the study recommend that Europe expand its arsenal.
Strengthen European defenses, take Putin seriously
In general, Europe must take its defense into its own hands. If the US withdraws its support for Europe, it will be impossible in the medium term to replace the missing capabilities with a European equivalent. In a conflict with Russia, Europe must focus on its strengths: in the air, at sea and in space, and potentially in cyberspace. If the US withdraws its support for Europe, it will be impossible in the medium term to replace the missing capabilities with a European equivalent.
The head of the IFR, Thomas Gomart, argues in the study that Europe has "the necessary potential, namely the economic resources, military capabilities and technological expertise, to counter Russia by 2030, provided it shows the political will to do so." However, the study cannot examine this political will. /Adapted from Fr.de/
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