FLASH
Shkruar nga Dragan Sormaz
At the end of this turbulent year, it is clear that Serbia, under the leadership of Vučić and his kleptocratic regime, no longer has any real prospects...
The year 2025 has become a year of “political bills coming” for the regime of Aleksandar Vučić, which during its 13 years in power has accumulated serious consequences both domestically and internationally. In addition to the deep erosion of domestic support that has shaken the foundations of the regime’s stability, Vučić has also faced the collapse of his foreign policy, previously built on four main pillars, which, within a very short period, experienced a complete collapse.
I had warned that this year would be fatal for Vučić in an article published on September 28 in the daily Danas, relying on information coming from key decision-making centers such as Brussels and Washington. These assessments were based on the anticipated developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Ukraine.
However, some elements of these scenarios were changed or did not fully materialize for three main reasons: the victory of Donald Trump in the United States, accompanied by a more limited interest in the region and a different approach to the war in Ukraine; the political instability in Kosovo and the prolonged technical status of its institutions for almost the entire year; and the tragic collapse of the tent in Novi Sad, which caused the biggest political upheaval in the country since Vučić came to power.
The first serious cracks in Serbia's much-touted foreign policy emerged in early May, during the debacle of Vučić's visit to the United States. On that occasion, the head of the Belgrade regime cited health problems and hurriedly returned to Serbia after only a few hours of the transatlantic trip.
According to unconfirmed reports, Vučić had unsuccessfully attempted, under a false name, to enter a Republican Party donor event to meet with Donald Trump. Since the participation of foreign heads of state in such events is illegal, it seems that the competent services intervened and Vučić, seeking to avoid an even bigger scandal, was forced to leave in a hurry for Belgrade.
The fact that, despite his promise, Vučić never publicly explained what actually happened in Florida makes it clear that the entire episode reached intolerable levels of shame and embarrassment, both for him personally and for the Serbian state.
In this case, Vučić demonstrated once again what I have been emphasizing for a long time, even during the period when I was a member of the SNS: the President of Serbia is a master of political engineering, but deeply politically uneducated. Seeing the world from the perspective of a small Balkan maneuverer, he completely ignored the fact that in 2020 he signed the Washington Agreement in the presence of Donald Trump, but failed to implement any of its provisions.
He failed to achieve energy diversification, did not reach a final agreement with Kosovo, and did not move Serbia's embassy to Jerusalem. Such actions push any country to the periphery of American interests, which represents a serious and long-term consequence for Serbia's foreign policy.
Playing the card of Donald Trump's return to power, Aleksandar Vučić relied on the wrong people in Washington, such as Richard Grenell and Rudolph Giuliani, who failed to secure the expected positions in the new American administration. These individuals, close to Vučić, turned out to be secondary figures with no real weight in the decision-making circles of the American political elite.
The final blow to Vučić's reputation in the United States came with the latest development, when Jared Kushner's company withdrew from the construction of a luxury hotel in central Belgrade, on the site of the former "General Headquarters", due to a corruption scandal.
This decision sealed the negative perception of Vučić in Washington: he is now seen as a political adventurer who has implicated President Trump's family in a corruption scandal, without having any serious projects ready for implementation.
The situation becomes even more unfavorable for Belgrade, given that the new US administration does not consider the Western Balkans a high priority. As a result, Washington is prepared to leave the resolution of regional issues to other influential actors, primarily Germany and Turkey.
It is precisely with these two powers that Serbia is finding it increasingly difficult to create common ground, nurturing false expectations that their interests will align with Serbian ones, instead of accepting the reality of power relations with much stronger states.
Vučić is in no better position in either Moscow or Beijing. Russia's active involvement in the year-long protests in Serbia, the lack of a long-term gas supply agreement, and an openly hostile stance toward Serbia on the NIS issue show that Vučić lacks neither the Kremlin's support nor understanding.
A similar situation exists with China, which has almost completely suspended its investments in Serbia. In 2025 alone, Chinese investments dropped drastically by 94 percent.
In such a geopolitical configuration, the only space where Vučić’s Serbia can still cling to a “thread of hope” remains the European Union. However, aware that there is no place for his regime in an EU member state built on the rule of law, Vučić has intensified anti-European propaganda.
This policy culminated in the proposal for the simultaneous admission of all countries in the region to the EU, an idea that is, in essence, anti-European and designed to fail, in order to shift the blame to Brussels.
At the end of this turbulent year, it is clear that Serbia, under the leadership of Vučić and his kleptocratic regime, no longer has any real prospects. The key decisions to be taken in the coming months make it necessary to exert strong domestic and international pressure for the formation of a transitional government that would guarantee free and fair elections and a clear geopolitical orientation. / Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "TheGeopost"
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