FLASH
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War Without End: Putin's Russia, Divided Europe, and Trump's Failed Dreams
Russian President Vladimir Putin's marathon conference on December 19, which has now become an annual ritual, gave no sign that Moscow will back down from the objectives announced since the launch of the "special military operation" against Ukraine in February 2022: the complete annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.
As expected, Putin was not at all concerned that, almost four years after the start of the war, the Russian army has only managed to completely occupy Luhansk, a region it had partially controlled since 2015, as well as Donetsk.
Putin’s unwavering stance is not surprising. Shortly after the invasion, the Russian Duma passed laws declaring these four regions part of Russian territory. This month, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his deputy Sergei Ryabkov reaffirmed the Kremlin’s territorial claims.
This hard line runs counter to Donald Trump's desperate efforts to reach a political agreement before Christmas. In an effort to meet this deadline, Trump has been pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to hand over the remaining areas of Donetsk still controlled by Kiev. Although Zelensky rejected this demand, he has expressed a willingness to give up NATO membership and declare neutrality, in exchange for strong security guarantees from the West.
Putin is not convinced, his war is not only related to NATO
This compromise is unlikely to satisfy Putin. Moscow’s concerns about NATO expansion are older than Putin himself. But the 2022 war is not simply about NATO, as there is no evidence that Ukraine was any closer to membership on the eve of the invasion than it was in 2008, when NATO at the Bucharest Summit promised future membership with no deadline.
Unlike Finland and Sweden, which were quickly admitted to NATO after applying in May 2022, Ukraine has remained hostage to the disunity of member states, a disunity that requires unanimity for new admissions. So to understand Putin's motives, one must look deeper into his historical narrative.
Putin has repeatedly stated that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, that the division between them after the collapse of the Soviet Union was a tragedy, and that southern and eastern Ukraine historically belong to Russia. In essence, he believes that Russia was “stolen.”
Trump, Putin's invisible partner?
At the press conference, Putin praised Trump's sincerity in starting peace negotiations and said that Russia is still ready for them, if its interests are taken seriously.
But this “praise” is not without purpose. Trump has called Putin a “genius,” blamed Ukraine for starting the war, and expressed interest in billions of dollars in joint deals with Russia. He has supported Putin’s demand that Zelensky hold presidential elections, despite the war, to legitimize his rule.
Like Putin, Trump displays contempt for Europe and prefers a deal that bypasses the continent and the Ukrainians themselves. Therefore, Moscow sees Trump as an “open door” to disconnect the US from Europe and weaken the Western front.
Faced with this uncompromising war, the European Union has made a strategic move to prevent Ukraine from collapsing. Although the plan to use the interest on 210 billion euros of frozen Russian assets failed, the EU found an alternative path: it will borrow 90 billion euros to support Ukraine for the next two years – a debt that will not be repaid unless Russia pays reparations (something no one expects).
The European media focused on the division between EU countries, but the real news is that 27 countries, with different interests, managed to unite to avoid the collapse of Ukraine. If Putin's statements indicate that the war will continue, the EU's decision makes this reality even clearer.
Europe has thrown Ukraine a lifeline, but we cannot be fooled. Ukraine will continue to fight with its back to the wall, facing an enemy with far greater resources, and a leader who understands “compromise” only as the other side's surrender.
As long as Putin doesn't give up on territory, Trump won't get the Christmas present he wants. And despite diplomatic efforts, everything indicates that the war will drag on into next year. /Adapted from "Pamphlet" by "The Guardian"
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