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Politico has dedicated an article about what Vladimir Putin wants to happen with the US elections, recalling the time "when Donald Trump won in 2016, champagne was opened in Moscow".
"Eight years after two election contests and an attack on Ukraine, the reality is that no potential future president is likely to deliver everything Moscow wants," writes Politico.
The case of Trump's victory
Since his first term in office, Trump has enjoyed a kind of admiration from Moscow and Russia's president.
"Putin is a short man. The Kremlin loves the fact that the tall and rich Trump is in absolute awe of Putin. This gives Putin the upper hand," says Nina Khrushchev, professor at the New School in New York and great-granddaughter of former Soviet Prime Minister Nikita Khrushchev.
As Politico notes, the Russian elite are no strangers to displays of wealth like Trump's, and "Trump's conspiracy thinking resonates with the deep-seated belief among many Russians that ordinary Americans are hostages of a deep state."
The biggest lure for the Kremlin when it comes to Trump, of course, is his stance on Ukraine. The Republican candidate has vowed to end the war within a day, apparently forcing Kiev to make territorial concessions. At the same time, the vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, is a vocal critic of giving aid to Ukraine.
"Putin desperately needs a victory," said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter. "A protracted conflict that he is unable to win does not help his legitimacy."
However, there is a downside to Trump. As Moscow learned the hard way during his first term, Trump doesn't always keep his promises. In particular, he did not repair relations with Russia and lift Western sanctions related to the seizure of Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Eight years later, as Putin's invasion plan nears the end of its third year, Moscow doubts Washington's hostility will be softened by even the most pro-Kremlin president.
"The election will not change anything for Russia, because the candidates fully reflect the bipartisan consensus that our country must be defeated," Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, wrote in a Telegram post.
He called Trump's words about the end of the war and his good relations with Russia "banality".
"He cannot stop the war. Not in one day, not in three days, not in three months. And if he really tries, he can be the new JFK," Medvedev added.
In the same line and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov: "Whoever wins the elections, we see no prospect for America to change its Russophobic course."
Harris' winning case
President Joe Biden was "our favorite, if you can call it that," Putin said during a panel at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. After Biden withdrew from the race, Putin said Russia would do what the Democratic president had asked his followers to do and "endorse" Harris.
President Biden was "our favorite, so to speak." so," Putin had said at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, and when the current US president withdrew from the US election race, Putin said Russia would do what the Democratic president had asked his followers to do and "support" Kamala Harris.
"She has such an expressive and infectious laugh, it shows she's doing well," he said, eliciting laughter from his audience.
Trump's promise of a quick end to the war in Ukraine, even one that would secure territory for Moscow, may not be Putin's preferred outcome. "He has made the fight the center of his reputation, and so he will do it as long as he needs, wants and can", explains Krushcheva.
Harris can help with that, prolonging a status quo that Moscow believes is in its favor as Western resolve weakens in the face of Russia's relentless onslaught.
As a champion of the US foreign policy establishment, Harris also offers Putin a perfect counter-fear, as well as a justification for his fight against what she calls "American hegemony".
"If the Kremlin were to vote, there is no doubt that it would vote for chaos, polarization and disillusionment with American democracy. As of today, he appears to have a good chance of winning," Politico's analysis concludes.
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