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Polls and predictions for the US presidential election show a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as voters head to the polls on Election Day.
Both candidates gave their final speeches on Monday to voters in swing states who will decide in a historic election whether Trump or Harris will win.
Harris would be the first woman, the first black woman and the first person of South Asian descent to be elected president if she defeats Trump.
If Trump wins, he would be the first incoming president to be impeached and convicted of a crime, as well as the second president in history to win non-consecutive terms in the White House.
Harris spent Monday campaigning in Pennsylvania — his 19 electoral votes make the state the biggest "prize" among the battleground states that will determine the winner of the Electoral College.
Trump held rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before wrapping up his campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Monday night.
polls
New York Times / Siena College
The latest New York Times / Siena College poll of the 2024 election cycle showed Harris with marginal leads in the battleground states of Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Trump is ahead in Arizona, while they are tied in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania. The poll polled 7,879 likely voters in the seven states from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
ABC News/Ipsos
Kamala Harris leads by 3 points. Harris is at 49%, while Trump is at 46%, in the final ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday. The poll polled 2,267 likely voters between Oct. 29 and Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
TIPP Insights
Trump had a very narrow lead — 49% to Harris' 48% — in a TIPP Insights poll released Sunday. The poll polled 1,305 likely voters between Oct. 31 and Nov. 31 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. TIPP Insights was rated the most accurate poll by The Washington Post in 2020.
Emerson College Poll
The latest Emerson College poll tied Trump and Harris at 49 percent each. The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 among 1,000 likely voters and has a margin or error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
prediction
FiveThirtyEight's forecasting model predicts a close race between Trump and Harris. Trump wins 53 out of 100, while Harris wins 46 out of 100 as of Sunday, according to FiveThirtyEight's election simulations.
The model, as of Nov. 2, projects Trump to secure 275 Electoral College votes to Harris' 268.
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's forecast, updated Sunday, gives Trump a 54 percent chance of winning the election and Harris 46 percent. The projection predicts that Trump will secure 277 Electoral College votes, while Harris will receive 261.
"Trump remains a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the result is effectively a swing," says an analysis from Decision Desk HQ on Oct. 28. "Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes, with Trump currently at 235 and Harris at 226."
The Real Clear Polling map predicts that Trump will triumph in the Electoral College, with 287 votes for Trump to 251 for Harris.
The model predicts that Trump will break the "blue wall" and hold the battleground state of Pennsylvania, as well as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Harris is projected to carry Michigan and Wisconsin.
Statistician Nate Silver's model also favors Trump winning the Electoral College.
The former president has a 52.6% chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has a 47 percent chance, according to a Substack post on Monday. However, it finds that Harris is more likely to win the popular vote — with a 74.2 percent chance compared to 25.8 percent for Trump.
The model gives Trump a better chance of keeping Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and Harris a better chance of winning Michigan and Wisconsin.
The Economist's forecasting model, updated Monday, predicts that Harris and Trump have an equal chance of winning the election. Both are predicted to win 50 out of 100 times.
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