FLASH
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BBC identifies recurring patterns of transactions that precede market-impacting announcements
Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term, investors have been putting millions of dollars into the markets just before he makes major statements. The BBC analysed data on the volume of transactions in various financial markets and linked it to some of the president's most important market-moving announcements.
The analysis identifies a consistent pattern of increased trading activity hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview is published. Some analysts believe these cases involve elements of insider trading, where decisions are made based on non-public information. Others argue that the situation is more complex and that some traders have become more adept at predicting the president’s actions.
March 9, 2026: “The war is almost complete”
Big moves were recorded in the oil futures market. Nine days after the start of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Trump declared to CBS News that the war was "practically complete."
20:29: Bets on oil price decline increase
22:16: Trump's statement is made public
22:17: Oil price drops by 25%
The data shows that the unusual activity began 47 minutes before the news was published, suggesting that some traders may have profited millions of dollars from this move.
March 23, 2026: “Complete and comprehensive completion”
Two days after threatening Iran, Trump announced that he had held "very good and productive" talks to end the conflict.
13:48–13:50: bets on the oil market increase
14:04: statement published
14:05: Oil price drops 11%
Again, a high number of transactions were recorded before the announcement. Analysts described this activity as “unusual.”
April 9, 2025: Pause for “Liberation Day”
After imposing global tariffs that sent markets plummeting, Trump announced a 90-day pause for most countries.
20:00: Market growth bets increase
20:18: break declared
20:19: the market begins a historic rise
The S&P 500 index rose 9.5%. Before the announcement, there was an unusual increase in traded contracts and millions of bets on the market's growth.
Several Democratic senators then called for an investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), raising concerns that individuals connected to the government may have benefited. The SEC did not comment, and the White House did not respond to requests for comment.
January 3, 2026: Arrest of Maduro
On prediction markets platforms, an account created in December 2025 placed about $32,500 on the possibility of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro leaving power.
January 3, 2026: Maduro arrested
Profit: $436,000
After that, the account changed its name and was no longer active.
February 28, 2026: Attacks on Iran
Six accounts created in February bet on a US attack on Iran. When the attacks were confirmed, they made about $1.2 million. One of them continued the activity and made further profits by predicting a ceasefire.
Platforms like Polymarket claim to uphold high integrity standards and cooperate with authorities. Even US regulators emphasize that they have zero tolerance for fraud and the use of inside information.
However, experts point out that these cases are difficult to prove legally. According to Professor Paul Oudin, the authorities do not take action without identifying the source of the information, which makes punishment uncertain even when there are strong indications. /Adapted Pamphlet /
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