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And this year, he predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win, writes CNN.
Historian and professor Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections.
And this year, he predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win, writes CNN .
His system, which is called "White House Keys," goes through "13 parameters" in a list to calculate the final forecast, without taking into account polls used in the run-up to the election.
“Why am I sure Harris will win? Because it's just close to the polls and my system ignores the polls,'' Lichtman told CNN's Rosemary Church on Monday.
He said these polls are often just "snapshots" with large margins of error and that "people don't answer pollsters, lie, change their minds and have to guess who the likely voters are."
Lichtman was one of the few who correctly predicted that Donald Trump would win the 2016 election — which "didn't make me very popular" at the time, he recalled.
Its 13-point system, each answered with a yes or no, takes into account a variety of factors and circumstances, such as whether there was social unrest during the previous presidential term, whether the economy is in recession, and if the current president has faced major scandals during their tenure.
Although confident in his prediction, Lichtman said he was nervous — partly because of the unprecedented amount of harassment and "hate" he and his family have received, and partly because "democracy is really on the ballot here ".
"Democracy is precious. But like all precious things, it can be destroyed," he said.
"We have never before had a candidate who has obstructed the peaceful transfer of power, instigated a violent coup, orchestrated false electors and now refuses to accept the results of a fair election. I don't care so much if I'm right or wrong, I care about the future of our country, which is in great danger," he said.
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