FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
According to the results of the primary election contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Joe Biden and Donald Trump seem to offer the country a continuation of the 2020 elections. Although they achieved convincing victories this week, for both candidates it has already been revealed their weak points.
According to the "VoteCast" survey conducted by the Associated Press news agency in Iowa and New Hampshire, it seems that former President Trump has created a base of loyal Republican followers. But that loyalty appears to come at a price: So far he has not gained ground among university graduates and people living outside urban centers, who could be decisive in November's general election.
President Biden enjoys the support of a broad and diverse coalition of Democrats. But this extension of the coalition also testifies to its fragility, with differences in views on the conflict in the Middle East and immigration, which can divide the votes of this bloc.
These fluctuations depend not only on who will take the presidency, but also on how the richest and most militarily powerful country in the world perceives itself. The divisions in the population have created the premises for an uncertain future, where a group of voters tired of the pandemic and political disorder may again have to choose between two very different directions.
The VoteCast survey polled 1,989 voters in New Hampshire who participated in the Republican primary and 915 voters who participated in the Democratic primary. The survey was conducted by the Associated Press news agency and the NORC Center for the Study of Public Affairs.
THE LIMITS OF FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP'S INFLUENCE
Many Republicans who once worshiped former Presidents Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan are now in tune with 77-year-old former President Donald Trump, who has transformed the party in his image.
In states like New Hampshire and Iowa there are many voters from towns and rural communities. Most of them do not have university degrees. Almost all are white. In 2020, the VoteCast poll found that 43% of all American voters in the general election were white, non-college graduates. Mr. Trump convincingly won 62% of the vote from this group four years ago. This makes him a strong candidate within the Republican Party and beyond.
The poll shows that these voters like messages about limiting immigration, building a wall along the border with Mexico and getting more hydrocarbons out of the American soil. But these political stances also cause conflict with voters who see immigration as positive, or border walls as ineffective and perhaps even harmful, and fossil energy sources as exacerbating the damage from climate change.
Despite rousing rallies and speeches, Mr. Trump failed to win the popular vote in the 2016 election, or in 2020. Polls show he is failing to attract many college graduates and self-identified political moderates.
In New Hampshire, former President Trump lost a majority of moderates and about two-thirds of those who identify as independents. He lost nearly 6 out of 10 college-educated voters and has seen continued weakness in the ranks of voters living outside urban centers.
New Hampshire's results provide an indication of what the electorate may look like for November's national election, as people who do not identify with either party are allowed to vote in the state's primary. Nearly half of the participants in the Republican primaries did not identify with the party, and Mr. Trump does not seem to have won their support.
Among people who voted in the Republican primary in New Hampshire, a third said they would not vote for Mr. Trump in the general election in November. Nearly half of them, including those who would vote for him in the general election, said they would be unhappy if he is the official Republican nominee.
Meanwhile, his last major challenger in the Republican Party faces a different problem: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley enjoys broader support among moderates and highly educated voters, as well as those who have doubts about Mr. Trump's ability to win the general election. But she enjoys little support within the base of the Republican Party. This makes it more and more difficult for her to be nominated as the party's official candidate. And if he succeeds in doing so, another challenge for the general election will be mobilizing the Republican base to get out to the polls.
President Biden's name was not on the New Hampshire Democratic primary ballot. Democrats moved their primary contest to South Carolina, making the New Hampshire vote a symbolic one that required his supporters to write in his name.
A few months before the primaries, polls by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research showed waning support for Mr. Biden.
Sipas sondazheve, inflacioni i lartë ishte shtytësi kryesor për zbehjen e mbështetjes ndaj zotit Biden, ndërsa politikat e tij të suksesshme për infrastrukturën, trajtimin e ngrohjes globale dhe prodhimin e gjysmëpërçuesve në vend, nuk ndikuan shumë tek votuesit.
Votimi simbolik në Nju Hampshër solli një rezultat të këndshëm për zotin Biden. Tetë në dhjetë votues demokratë e mbështesin punën e presidentit në çështje si ekonomia, çka tregon mbështetje pak më të madhe se në sondazhet në mbarë vendin mes demokratëve, të realizuara nga AP-NORC.
Ky optimizëm vjen mes të dhënave që tregojnë se ekonomia u rrit me shpejtësi gjatë vitit 2023 pas rënies së ndjeshme të inflacionit dhe shtimit të vendeve të punës.
Afro 9 në 10 prej atyre që votuan në zgjedhjet paraprake demokrate thanë se do të votonin për zotin Biden në zgjedhjet e nëntorit. Megjithatë, zoti Biden nuk arriti të fitonte shumicën mes votuesve të pavendosur që zgjodhën të votonin në anën demokrate.
Mes demokratëve nën moshën 45 vjeçare, 81-vjeçari Biden gëzon një mbështetje prej 40%. Shtatë nga dhjetë votues demokratë mbi moshën 45 vjeçare votuan për zotin Biden në Nju Hampshirë, ndërsa rreth dy të tretat e votuesve të moshuar nuk pajtohen.
Në zgjedhjet e vitit 2020, 26% e votuesve ishin jo të bardhë dhe zoti Biden mori mbështetjen e 73% të votuesve të atij grupi, një avantazh që e ndihmoi atë të mundte zotin Trump.
ÇFARË PRITET TË NDODHË NË MUAJT E ARDHSHËM?
Ka ende një numër të madh shtetesh që do të mbajnë zgjedhjet paraprake; do të ketë shumë fjalime të kandidatëve, kuvende kombëtare të partive dhe një numër të madh reklamash dhe postimesh në mediat sociale përpara zgjedhjeve të nëntorit.
Por me pakësimin e numrit të kandidatëve në zgjedhjet paraprake, ndryshon edhe strategjia kryesore e kandidatëve mbi sulmet ndaj kundërshtarëve. Presidenti Biden tashmë ka filluar të bëjë krahasime mes deklaratave të zotit Trump dhe retorikës naziste. Ai ka fajësuar ish presidentin Trump për rrëzimin e vendimit për çështjen Roe kundër Wade nga Gjykata e Lartë, që e bëri të ligjshëm abortin në nivel federal. Tani e drejta e abortit është kufizuar në shumë shtete të drejtuara nga republikanët. Zoti Trump tashmë ka filluar të sulmojë Presidentin Biden për moshën e madhe dhe aftësinë e tij për të qenë president i vendit.
Gara do të varet nga mënyra se si do të ndërtohen koalicionet e votuesve nga kandidatët në secilin shtet në përpjekjet e tyre për të siguruar 270 votat e nevojshme të kolegjit elektoral. Në këtë drejtim, gara në Nju Hempshër ofron një pasqyrë të strategjive që do të ndiqen nga kandidatët në muajt e ardhshëm në shtetet e tjera amerikane.
Ish Presidenti Trump mund të përpiqet të fitojë duke e rritur shkallën e mbështetjes nga votuesit e bardhë pa diplomë universiteti. Por Presidenti Biden mund të përpiqet të përmirësojë shkallën e mbështetjes nga ky grup votuesish duke reklamuar mbështetjen që ai ka marrë nga sindikatat e punëtorëve.
The Democratic president has made student loan forgiveness a priority. This could attract the support of graduates and young voters. But young voters seem less enthusiastic about supporting Mr. Biden. Mr. Trump's campaign sees potential in securing greater support from black voters, a group that has overwhelmingly backed Democrats in past elections.
The fundamental conundrum facing both campaigns is how to build a winning coalition. The results of their decisions on this matter will become clearer as the November elections approach and on election day when the winner of the elections will finally be clear./VOA
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