FLASH
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Peace and stability in the Middle East will always be hard won. But the world must seize this chance, because the pull towards war is unceasing.
In the months since Hamas committed the worst atrocity against Jews since the Holocaust, the conflict has spread across the Middle East. In total, ten countries are now caught up in the war. In Gaza, Israeli soldiers and Hamas continue to kill each other, even as 2 million people face starvation. Across the border with Lebanon, Hizbullah and Israel are engaged in a low-level war. Yemen's Houthis are attacking cargo ships, exacerbating a financial crisis in Egypt and prompting retaliation from America and Britain. The killing of three soldiers in Jordan on January 28 by militias in Iraq could trigger a clash between America and Iran, which sponsors the "axis of resistance".
It is easy to despair, but there is a way out. Amid intense diplomacy led by America and Saudi Arabia, a transformative deal is taking shape. His new one, we learn, is to use a proposed hostage release to reset Israeli policy; to use that resettlement to pave the way to a Palestinian state; and then to use Israel's commitment to this as the basis for an agreement between it and Saudi Arabia in which mutual recognition is backed by American security guarantees. Officials say the chances of a hostage deal could be 50% and, with that in place, the chances of a Saudi-Israeli deal could also be 50%. The price is far from certain, but it promises a new economic and security architecture in the Middle East.
One reason for hope is that Israel may want to stop the campaign. Many Israelis are desperate to get their hostages home, and fighting will not free them. Israel has advanced toward its military goals. Hamas has lost half its territory, half its fighters (says the Israeli military), perhaps a third of its tunnels, and many of its leaders (but not the top). From now on, Israel will face diminishing returns, plus an ever-increasing number of civilians in Gaza and corresponding damage to its reputation.
Another reason for hope is that America, Egypt, the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia also have good reasons to work together. As the war has spread, all those countries have seen the full extent of Iran's malign influence. Through its regional proxies, armed with drones and missiles, Iran is trying to sow regional chaos even as it seeks to avoid a direct war with Israel or America. All want to stop Iran's purge regime from emerging as a regional power capable of threatening Israel and the Gulf and holding world trade as a ransom. That would make a mockery of American deterrence. No one wants to see a devastating war that pits America and Israel against Iran. Peace is the only way out.
The plan begins with a humanitarian pause brokered by America, Qatar and Egypt. The first truce, in November, lasted only seven days; this could last for a month or two and release many or all of the remaining 100 or so Israeli hostages in phases. This could reset Israeli politics and help the Israeli public look beyond the horror of October 7. America and Saudi Arabia are urging Israel to commit to a Palestinian state and prove its resolve, for example, by freezing settlements in the West Bank.
The next step, The Economist report reveals, involves Mohammed bin Salman, the autocratic but modernizing leader of Saudi Arabia. Before October 7 he was working on an agreement that recognized Israel in exchange for a Saudi-American defense treaty. Indeed, a possible motive behind the Hamas attack was to sabotage his plans. Against the odds, Saudi Arabia is still striving for this vision. An agreement would mark the biggest Arab commitment to peace in three decades. It would also bind Israel and offer the Palestinians a concrete commitment to statehood. Over time, this could evolve into an American-led regional alliance to contain Iran.
Two major obstacles stand in the way: Benyamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, and Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza and the terrorist architect of October 7. Netanyahu is a lifelong skeptic of a Palestinian state.
Israel's next leader can be someone who can tell his people that the best foundation for their security is not endless war, but strong alliances and a path to peace.
President Joe Biden should accelerate this transition by appealing over Mr. Netanyahu's head — just as Mr. Netanyahu has once talked over the heads of American presidents. He should open an embassy in Jerusalem for the Palestinians, to match the one Donald Trump opened for Israel. He must also define how America sees the parameters for a Palestinian state and, if Israel steadfastly refuses to commit, be willing to recognize one itself.
What about the other obstacle, Mr. Sinwar?
It is thought to be isolated under southern Gaza, with Israeli troops above. Although he has wreaked havoc on Gaza, he will gain a great victory simply by surviving. It is possible that the armed and more fanatical wing of Hamas would emerge after a ceasefire as the dominant force in Gaza and claim wider Palestinian leadership. With Iran's encouragement, Mr. Sinwar could attack Israel, provoke retaliation, and thereby sabotage any progress toward peace.
To deter such attacks and continue dismantling the tunnels, Israel will maintain a military presence in Gaza for some time. This will disappoint those who want instant appeal. But Israel must be clear that, if its security is guaranteed and Hamas remains out of power, then it will withdraw. Mr. Sinwar may be asked to leave Gaza for a country such as Qatar, as Yasser Arafat left Lebanon for Tunisia. He is likely to insist on staying. This would underline the value of international peacekeepers, including from Arab states, tasked with providing security in Gaza in order to create space for the emergence of a moderate government.
For this to be possible, momentum is urgently needed. The more Israel reins in its settlers in the West Bank and the more it is believed to be committed to a Palestinian state, the more leeway it will have to rein in the undercurrents of Hamas fighters. The more Arab states are willing to spend money and provide security, the safer ordinary Israelis and Palestinians will be for a change. And the more America pushes all sides, the better. Peace and stability in the Middle East will always be hard won. But the world must seize this chance, because the pull towards war is unstoppable./ Taken from The Economist
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