FLASH
Shkruar nga Federico Rampini
Forecasts are a useful exercise in looking a little further than what we see now...
Eastern Ukraine and Western Ukraine separated by a "demilitarized zone" like North and South Korea, united by a military alliance. The extreme right in government in France. The crisis over Taiwan and the global financial shock caused by sanctions against China. Russia-China rift, post-Putin or post-Xi. America's final victory in the Cold War with China. These are some of the characteristics of the world to come, partly in a few months or at least within a decade, according to what I call "Cernobbio's Prophecy".
It's a figure of speech, let's be clear. In general, I do not believe in prophecy. As for the more prosaic predictions, they rarely come true. The House-Ambrosetti European Forum in Cernobbio, which I attended again this year and which ended yesterday, does not pretend to see the future in a crystal ball. But precisely because the profession of forecasters is a high-risk one, and because "black swans" (highly improbable events that are destabilizing when they occur) have blighted our recent past, I consider those who dare to they describe our "brave" future.
One of the international scholars I respect most did this in Cernobbio, a great economic historian, also an expert in geopolitics. I don't quote it in quotes to respect Cernobbio's rules ("Chatham Rule"). But I will summarize for you in my own words the daring exercise to which he devoted himself.
My great expert and Vate (as I call him with benevolent irony mixed with respect) started from a retrospective reflection. Ten years ago the late Henry Kissinger wrote one of his most important essays, "World Order." A fundamental work in the field of geopolitics. It was 2014, what has happened since then that neither we nor a giant like Kissinger could have predicted? At least nine major surprises.
A. In economic terms, America recorded growth of 63% in a decade, sensationally outstripping Europe, shattering China's dreams of overtaking.
Two . The pandemic originated in Wuhan, China, possibly in a laboratory; Another surprise is that in America alone, drug overdoses have claimed as many victims as the pandemic.
Three. America has regained clear leadership in the new technological revolution, artificial intelligence, but with the help of microchips made in Taiwan.
Four. Among Americans, especially young people, the most popular social media is Chinese (TikTok).
Five: Brexit.
Six: The far right in government in six European countries.
Seven: Trump three-time White House candidate and one-time president, plus his tariffs against China.
Eight: Russia launches an all-out invasion of Ukraine eight years after annexing Crimea and the world splits with the US-EU-Japan backing Ukraine while China-Iran backing Putin.
Nine: The massacre of Jews massacred by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
It is arguable whether at least some of these destabilizing events were slightly less unpredictable than others. Personally, I consider the invasion of Ukraine to have been a forewarned event, if only we had listened carefully to what Putin had been saying for years (we haven't). Brexit and Trump had plenty of warning signs; if instead they were experienced as double whammy, it is above all because the Anglo-American globalist establishment considered itself irreplaceable and lived in a self-referential media "bubble". One can also oppose Hamas; but it is also true that October 7 surprised those Israeli secret services that we considered almost infallible.
Having examined the "black swans" of the last decade, here are the prophecies of the Great Expert and Prophet for our near or medium-term future. I give you not only because they are interesting stimuli for our reflection, but also because many of these predictions convince me. And the author is one of the most brilliant intellects of our time. Some of his "bets" are predicted in a period of several months, others may be related to the end of the decade.
Trump wins the election again on November 5. The US economy will eventually slow down and have painful budget adjustments, but it is not a downturn. In Ukraine, a ceasefire is reached with a "Korean-style" solution, i.e. without a peace treaty, freezing the territorial division. Western Ukraine becomes a new South Korea, also in the sense of transforming itself into a showcase of economic prosperity thanks to Western reconstruction aid. There will be a crisis in Taiwan (not necessarily a traditional military invasion, but still a serious and destabilizing event), with global economic-financial consequences. And young Americans influenced by TikTok may root for Beijing.
The extreme right will eventually take over the government, both in Paris and in the European Union. Israel and Saudi Arabia form a defense alliance (against Iran). When the era of Putin in Russia or that of Xi in China ends, relations between the two powers immediately enter a phase of deterioration. America triumphs in the Second Cold War as it did in the First.
Here is the whole "Cernobbio prophecy". Some of these predictions will seem almost obvious to you. Perhaps someone will welcome them with skepticism. They are a useful exercise in pushing the gaze a little further than what we see now. Each of these hypotheses has a background of deep analysis. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
Lini një Përgjigje