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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
According to sources from two countries, the Kremlin may be trying to test NATO's cohesion as Russia faces increasing pressure from Ukraine...
Two countries on NATO's eastern flank have warned that Russia is preparing a possible "provocation" in the Baltic states or Poland, in an attempt to test the cohesion of the western military alliance.
Western sources also fear that there could be danger on the horizon, as the Kremlin is facing pressure from Ukraine's campaign of long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St. Petersburg.
On Monday, Latvia's intelligence service stated that "we see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland." However, according to it, this would be far from a full-scale military attack.
A senior political source from a second NATO member state made a similar statement last week. "We are receiving intelligence" that Vladimir Putin is "planning something against the Baltic states," he said.
According to this source, Putin may be willing to test US support for some of NATO's smaller member states, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, in a desperate attempt to "roll the dice" as Russia struggles with its invasion of Ukraine.
Latvian intelligence said that Russia is not in a position to open a second front, but is considering the possibility of "hybrid attacks, such as missiles, drones or other actions designed to send a signal: stop supporting Ukraine, or you will face your own problems" .
Although the warnings appear to be related, there was little supporting detail, unlike the detailed warnings released by the CIA and MI6 before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
However, they come at a time when Russia's advance in Ukraine has stalled, raising questions about whether the Kremlin will turn to alternative strategies to break the stalemate or change the dynamic in its favor.
Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the Chatham House think tank, said that "Moscow will look for ways to disrupt the current trend, whether through horizontal escalation [spreading the conflict to other countries] or by doing something else. We should not expect Russia to passively accept defeat."
Russia's relative weakness was highlighted this week when drone signal transmission stations in Belarus stopped working after Ukraine threatened to attack them. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had given Belarus a week's warning last Friday, saying the equipment enabled Russian attacks on Ukraine.
A Telegram channel reported that Belarusian authorities in the Brest and Gomel regions had asked mobile operators to dismantle signal repeaters, arguing that they were interfering with the nesting areas of wild quail.
NATO will hold its annual summit this month in Ankara, Turkey, amid uncertainty over the US commitment to the alliance. On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he was "disappointed" by European allies who did not allow US air forces to bomb Iran from air bases on their territory.
Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been several waves of sabotage and provocative activities by Russia, including the planting of incendiary bombs on DHL shipments to the United Kingdom, Poland, and Germany during the summer of 2024.
Last September, 19 rogue Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO to scramble fighter jets to shoot them down, while residents in three eastern provinces were asked to shelter indoors.
Ukraine has gradually developed a domestic deep-strike capability, capable of hitting targets up to 2,000 kilometers inside Russian territory. Last week, nearly 200 drones struck several areas in Moscow, and parts of the Russian capital were rained with oil after a refinery was bombed.
A Western military source said there is concern that Russia could react harshly if Putin feels he is being pressured, as war looms ever closer over the skies of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
"I'm not going to lie, this is a dangerous period," he said.
Concerns about a possible Russian escalation also surfaced in the autumn of 2022, when a series of unexpected losses in the Kharkiv province raised fears in the West that Moscow might even use nuclear weapons to defend itself. However, there was no evidence that steps had been taken towards an actual deployment of such weapons, and the front line had stabilized by the end of that year. /Adapted from The Guardian Pamphlet /
Putini me ata gallofet qe ka pas eshte hic, por luan me sindromen e feminise qe gjuante xhamat e teto Sotirices me llastik.