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The strategy for flexibility, divergences within the cartel and orientation towards a new energy model are distancing the Emirates from OPEC...
The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the expanded OPEC+ format, ending a membership that lasted nearly six decades.
According to the official statement, this step reflects the country's "long-term strategic and economic vision", as well as the transformation of its energy profile.
The UAE's energy minister stressed that exiting these mechanisms would give the country greater flexibility in production and investment policies. The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and its departure reduces the number of members to 11.
Analyst Saul Kavonic of MST Financial calls this development a blow to the cartel, describing it as “the beginning of the end for OPEC.” According to him, with the departure of the EBA, the organization loses about 15% of its capacity and one of the most disciplined members in respecting quotas.
The latest data shows that the UAE produces about 2.9 million barrels of oil per day, while Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, produces about 9 million barrels. Kavonic argues that Saudi Arabia will face difficulties in maintaining the unity of the organization and will have to bear the main burden of market management and internal discipline.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ is related to a combination of strategic, economic, and political factors that have deepened in recent years.
According to the official statement, the main reason is the need for greater flexibility in energy policies. As a member of OPEC, the UAE was obliged to respect production quotas, which in some cases limited its plans to increase capacity and oil exports. Exiting the organization gives the country the opportunity to adjust production according to its economic interests and market conditions.
Another factor is the country's changing energy profile. The UAE has invested heavily in renewable energy, natural gas, and new technologies, aiming to diversify the economy away from oil. This transformation makes a coordinated model like OPEC's, which focuses primarily on managing oil production, less suitable.
Within OPEC itself, there have also been tensions over quota allocation and Saudi Arabia's dominant role. Analysts note that several countries, including the UAE, have in the past called for quotas to be revised to better reflect actual production capacity. Disagreements on these issues have contributed to the growing distance between members.
From an energy market perspective, the EBA's departure could have several important consequences. If the country increases production outside OPEC's limits, this could add to global supply and put pressure on oil prices. At the same time, the weakening of discipline within the cartel could reduce its ability to stabilize the market in periods of volatility.
More broadly, this decision reflects a broader trend: major energy producers are seeking more autonomy in a market that is becoming increasingly complex, influenced by the energy transition, global competition, and geopolitical factors.
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