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From ammunition shortages to underinvestment in naval fleets, the alliance faces serious gaps in military readiness.
NATO has stayed out of the US-Israeli war in Iran, but the conflict has exposed significant weaknesses in the alliance's defenses, which would make it difficult to respond in the event of an attack by Russia.
“The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are not separate phenomena; there is much to learn from both in thinking about future wars,” declared General Dominique Tardif, deputy chief of the French air force, adding that “these combined lessons should lead us to a better understanding of how to guide capability development.”
European military officials have warned that Moscow could be capable of attacking an alliance member country by 2029, highlighting the urgent need for combat readiness and political cohesion.
Politico spoke with diplomats, current and former NATO officials, as well as defense experts, to identify five key gaps that were made apparent by the war in the Middle East.
Depletion of ammunition
The Iran war has exposed NATO's ammunition shortages. The United States used about half of its inventory of critical Patriot air defense missiles, while French officials warned that stocks of Aster and Mica missiles were running low in the first two weeks of the conflict.
Defense companies such as Rheinmetall and MBDA have signaled rising demand and looming shortages. A senior NATO diplomat stressed that if the US shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific, Europe will lose a significant portion of its military capabilities.
According to British lawmaker Calvin Bailey, if NATO does not change course, Russia could force the alliance out of a war due to the very high costs. Meanwhile, Moscow produces 6,000 to 7,000 attack drones per month, which could quickly deplete NATO's missile reserves.
Expert Justin Bronk suggests the urgent need for cheaper interceptors and for strengthening passive defenses, such as building fortified shelters for aircraft.
Air inferiority complex
Iran's ability to continue to launch over 5,000 missiles and drones at neighboring countries, despite the US air campaign, shows the limits of the idea that a state can be forced to surrender through aerial bombardment alone.
NATO should review the concept of air dominance and invest in long-range, precision-strike weapons that can hit targets deep inside Russian territory, including drone production capabilities.
Underfunded naval fleets
The limited participation of European countries in support of allies in the Persian Gulf has shown the lack of investment in NATO naval fleets.
A clear example is the United Kingdom, which took three weeks to deploy the destroyer HMS Dragon, which then returned to port due to a technical problem.
The British naval chief, General Gwyn Jenkins, has admitted that the navy is not ready for war, while less than half of the Canadian fleet is operational.
Experts emphasize that in a conflict with Russia, naval fleets will be key to neutralizing submarines and ships armed with long-range missiles.
More pragmatic approach towards the US
Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen suggests that European countries should follow a more pragmatic approach in their relationship with the US, linking their strategic support to American commitments to the alliance.
He also warns against continuing efforts to appease the US administration, stressing that this approach needs to be reviewed.
The importance of Ukraine
Within days of the start of the Iran war, Ukraine sent its drone experts to help Middle Eastern countries. Kiev has also signed long-term cooperation agreements with Gulf countries.
NATO has expanded cooperation with Ukraine, including joint training, industrial programs, and initiatives to develop innovative technologies.
According to experts, the alliance should build a defensive belt against drones near the border with Russia and increase investment in industrial cooperation with Ukraine.
A NATO diplomat points out that “Ukraine is acting as a security provider,” and the war in Iran has confirmed this role.
The Iran war has served as an indirect test for NATO, revealing significant gaps in military capabilities and strategic coordination. The analysis suggests that without rapid reforms and increased investment, the alliance could face serious difficulties in a future conflict with Russia.
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