FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
He knows that nuclear war would be the end of his regime and his life. As this war has shown, Putin is ready to sacrifice anyone, but not himself.
While Vladimir Putin generally shies away from overt threats of Russian nuclear weapons, his successors are much less elegant in their behavior. Since February of last year, Dimitri Medvedev, the former president of Russia, currently the deputy chairman of the Security Council, has threatened Ukraine and its supporters in the West 60 times with the use of atomic weapons.
Now 57, Medvedev occupies an important role in Russia's strategic communications, notably focused on nuclear propaganda. His job is to say what Putin cannot say publicly. So remind the world who owns the world's largest nuclear arsenal, and where it can be used.
But the problem is that now nobody takes it seriously anymore. Because some of what are claimed to be Moscow's "red lines" have been violated by the West, without a response from Russia. Therefore, it is a fact that Russian nuclear blackmail has stopped working.
In fact, it has become a semi-useful indicator of Russia's current state. Medvedev's threats usually follow new Russian military failures on the battlefield, and follow the old refrain "if we're on the verge of losing a war, then we have a red button to push."
As Ukraine's military counterattack escalated last weekend, Medvedev appeared as the "vanguard of the apocalypse" on his Telegram channel, calling the Russian military the only force that is avoiding "igniting a global nuclear conflagration."
In the early days of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the West took this threat seriously: Did helping Ukraine mean risking the start of a nuclear war? But it didn't take much imagination to see an equally dire alternative scenario: if Kiev fell, then it would be the Baltic states' turn, and we'd end up risking provoking a nuclear war anyway.
Holding back an aggressor may be the most provocative act of all. The West found courage and confronted Russia. And what happened? Western weapons were sent in large quantities to the battlefield. Ukraine hopes to one day join NATO when the war ends; and the only change in Russia's nuclear approach has been the alleged transfer to Belarus of some tactical nuclear weapons.
Por Rusia e zotëron tashmë aftësinë për të nisur një sulm bërthamor kudo që dëshiron. Ndaj nuk ka ndonjë logjikë ushtarake zhvendosja e disa raketave në Bjellorusi. Vlera e këtij lëvizjeje ishte thjesht psikologjike.
Pra Moska po përpiqet ta bindë Perëndimin se mbështetja e mëtejshme ushtarake dhe financiare për Ukrainën do të çojë në një përshkallëzim të situatës, dhe do të rrisë kërcënimin ndaj territorit të Ukrainës përmes lëshimeve të raketave, përfshirë ato me mbushje bërthamore.
“Armët bërthamore tashmë janë përdorur. Ne e dimë nga kush dhe ku, dhe kjo do të thotë se nuk ka më asnjë tabu!”- shkroi Medvedev në rrjetet e tij sociale. Por fakti që Moska ka vendosur të vendosë në tryezë “argumentin bërthamor”, vetëm sa po tregon se ushtria e saj ka dështuar në çdo aspekt, dhe se aktualisht Vladimir Putin nuk ka mënyra të tjera për të rritur presionin ndaj Ukrainës dhe aleatëve të saj.
Duke ngurruar të bëjë vetë kërcënime të drejtpërdrejta, ai ia delegon këtë detyrë Medvedevit, i cili duket se nuk e bën shumë mirë. Sepse është një fakt që kërcënimet e tij bërthamore, bëjnë rrallëherë bujë në mediat perëndimore. Madje ai shkakton tani më shumë tallje sesa frikë.
Like North Korea's regular threats that it will one day attack America, they are now seen as part of a daily crazy vocabulary coming from Moscow. Meanwhile, he is ignored by Ukrainian officials, who ironically advise him to drink less vodka before opening his Telegram profile.
Putin's attempt to invade Ukraine has turned out to be the biggest disaster of his presidency. He cannot secure a military victory. He knows that Ukraine will not give up and start negotiations. And he also knows that nuclear war would be the end of his regime and his life. As this war has shown, Putin is ready to sacrifice anyone, but not himself./ Taken from The Telegraph
Lini një Përgjigje